On April 29th, the price ultimately fell below 4600, fluctuating near a low of around 4555. While this may not be the absolute lowest point, the market's preemptive dip before the data release is not necessarily a negative development. Next, market participants will face the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and a speech by Fed Chair Powell, both scheduled around 2:00 AM, separated by approximately half an hour. This will be Powell's final speech during his current term. The market's early move lower has essentially provided a clear directional signal. The key question now is whether gold has further room to decline, especially as it remains in a bearish "death cross" pattern on the daily chart. Furthermore, with the May Day holiday approaching, significant capital may be reluctant to hold positions, potentially leading to increased volatility in global markets. However, a positive aspect is that this corrective move has occurred ahead of time, allowing the subsequent developments to unfold gradually. Amidst widespread caution, there is an opportunity for some to capitalize on this downturn, as corrective bottoms can indeed emerge at any moment.
It is evident that the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, although short-term adjustments involve potential downside. The ultimate low point is uncertain, and it may be prudent to await the early Thursday interest rate decision. A breach below 4550 is not strongly anticipated, as previous forecasts can easily be invalidated by sudden flash crashes. Therefore, whether the correction will break below 4550 is a matter for time to reveal, making precise judgment difficult. In this context, it becomes necessary to consider establishing positions in batches. A light long position can be initiated within the 4570-4580 range. If the price falls further, a stop-loss can be set at 4526 for these long positions. Given the light仓位, entering the market here is a reasonable attempt. Should the price break lower, alternative entry points can be sought. Conversely, if the 4550 low holds, consider adding to long positions in batches, with a heavy仓位 addition being appropriate once the price stabilizes above 4626.
From a technical perspective, both the daily and weekly charts show a synchronized bearish "death cross" pattern indicating a corrective downturn. Consequently, for medium to long-term positions, it is advisable to enter the market gradually and in batches, ensuring strict stop-loss orders are in place. On the hourly chart, the current information suggests that the 4550 level has provided support. The next focus is whether the four-hour chart can synchronize to form a bullish "golden cross" signal. The emergence of such a signal would also be a suitable time to add to medium to long-term positions. For a more conservative approach, remaining on the sidelines until after the Fed's decision on Thursday and seeking entry opportunities during the latter part of the Thursday US trading session is an option.
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