The first month of 2026 saw copper prices chart a complex course of "rushing higher - pulling back - consolidating at highs - and hitting new records": Monthly gains exceeded 4%, representing a substantial 9.61% increase month-over-month and a surge of over 36% year-over-year. The monthly average price firmly held above the critical 102,000 yuan/ton level, while LME copper prices consistently traded at the elevated level of 12,990 USD/ton, robustly validating the bull market resilience of "Dr. Copper" amidst a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.
Weekly Performance Details: • The first week (Jan 5-9) featured "roller-coaster" volatility: Post-New Year capital inflows from bullish investors propelled copper prices sharply higher to a peak of 105,500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, divergent US economic data, a stalled US stock rally, market uncertainty triggered by geopolitical tensions, and a broad decline in precious metals dampening industrial commodity sentiment led to profit-taking, causing a significant plunge on January 8th, with losses continuing into January 9th. Despite this, the week still closed 2.21% higher, with the price center stabilizing at 129,700 yuan/ton, highlighting the underlying bull market logic. • The second week (Jan 12-16) unfolded as a "tug-of-war between bulls and bears": Expectations for loose liquidity, geopolitical risk premiums, and China's fiscal policy formed a triple support, driving continued capital inflows into strategic metals. Conversely, Trump's challenge to Federal Reserve independence, hawkish statements from Fed officials, and heightened volatility in the US dollar index and stock markets caused a divergence in bullish sentiment. A pause in speculative buying combined with a lack of technical momentum triggered further profit-taking. Despite Goldman Sachs's fluctuating stance on copper prices, domestic copper prices remained strong above 100,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper prices continued trading at high levels around 12,000 USD/ton, confirming "Dr. Copper's" resilience—reflecting both the certainty of capital flowing into physical assets in a low-rate environment and the scarcity premium logic amid geopolitical conflicts and policy博弈. • During the third week (Jan 19-23), copper prices adjusted within a high range, ending the week up 0.35% but down 2.04% from the previous week's close, with the price center stabilizing near the 100,000 yuan mark. The core disruption was "Trump's Greenland geopolitical gambit": his social media claim that he "would not rule out seizing the island by force," accompanied by AI-generated visuals, triggered expectations of escalated US-Europe geopolitical risk, leading to a global flight to safety, a sharp drop in US stocks, and a rebound in the US dollar. Subsequently, the Davos Forum and a NATO framework agreement eased tensions, fueling a stock market rebound and a restoration of macro sentiment, which provided support for copper prices. Positive Chinese macroeconomic trends and continuously favorable policy signals formed a solid support base for copper prices at the key 100,000 yuan/ton level. • The fourth week (Jan 26-30) witnessed a breakout performance for Shanghai copper: Prices oscillated within a high range for the first three trading days, followed by a moderate rise on Thursday morning and a strong upward push in the afternoon. The night session continued the bullish momentum, breaking through to a fresh historical high above 114,000 yuan/ton. On Friday, copper futures did not extend gains, instead pulling back from the peak to consolidate around 103,000 yuan/ton. The core driver of this breakout was exuberant capital sentiment and a thickly bullish atmosphere, allowing prices to successfully push higher after nearly a week of high-level consolidation. Despite high prices curbing downstream demand, the onset of the seasonal Spring Festival lull, rising global visible copper inventories widening industry divergence, and early-week pressure from high-level adjustments, persistently strong precious metals and a downward shift in the US dollar index's center of gravity lifted the entire metals complex, causing bullish sentiment to spill over. Furthermore, supply-side positives from Southern Copper's projected production decline over the next two years, coupled with bullish expectations from several authoritative institutions, collectively propelled Shanghai copper to capitalize on the momentum and break out to new historic highs.
Overall, January saw copper prices demonstrate resilience amid macroeconomic tug-of-war, maintaining operation within a historically high range. This reflects both capital's definite preference for physical assets and the logic of scarcity premiums arising from geopolitical conflicts and policy博弈, with the bull market narrative persisting throughout the month.
Price Chart Analysis: 2.1 Yangtze Spot Price As shown in the chart above, in January 2026, domestic spot copper prices entered a consolidation phase after an initial surge, before embarking on another upward trajectory. The Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network—Yangtze Spot 1# copper monthly average price was reported at 102,166 yuan/ton, with a daily average increase of 259 yuan/ton. This represents a significant 9.33% increase compared to the December 2025 average (93,449.57 yuan/ton) and a nearly 36% surge compared to the January 2025 average (75,122.22 yuan/ton).
2.2 Shanghai Copper Futures As illustrated in the chart above, Shanghai copper futures surged higher in January 2026, paused briefly for consolidation, then gathered strength for a powerful upward push. The monthly settlement price for Shanghai copper was 102,231 yuan/ton. The monthly average line rose over 4%, with a daily average gain of 481 yuan/ton. This marks a 9.61% increase from the December 2025 average (93,271.74 yuan/ton) and a substantial 36.41% surge compared to the January 2025 average (74,945.56 yuan/ton).
2.3 LME Copper Futures CCMN data indicates that LME copper futures prices in January 2026 opened lower, surged, then entered a consolidation phase before rising again. The monthly average LME copper price was 12,999.19 USD/ton, with a daily average increase of 49.1 USD. This represents a significant 10.81% increase from the December 2025 average (11,731.25 USD/ton) and a 42.88% surge compared to the January 2025 average (9,097.86 USD/ton).
2.4 Domestic and International Inventory Data As shown in the chart, Shanghai copper social inventories accumulated in January 2026; monthly inventories increased by 87,662 tons to 233,004 tons. This is a 60.31% increase compared to December 2025 (145,342 tons) and a 128.80% surge compared to the total inventory level in January 2025 (101,838 tons), reaching the highest inventory level since March 28, 2025. This strongly confirms weak domestic year-end consumption, with the characteristic of a weak physical market being particularly evident.
As shown in the chart above, LME copper inventories also accumulated in January 2026, with monthly stocks increasing by 27,550 metric tons to 174,975 metric tons. This is an 18.69% increase from December 2025 (147,425 tons), reaching a new eight-and-a-half-month high. However, compared to the January 2025 inventory level (256,225 tons), it represents a 31.71% decrease, indicating that current inventory levels remain at historically low absolute values, continuing to provide a floor for copper prices.
Yangtze Perspective Analysis: The bull market logic for copper prices in January 2026 amidst multi-factor博弈: (一) Macro Drivers: Resonance of Loose Liquidity and Geopolitical Risk Federal Reserve Policy Path: The Fed held rates steady in January, with Governor Waller's dissenting vote sparking market speculation about policy continuity. Powell emphasized that "monetary policy is well-positioned," raising the near-term bar for rate cuts, though markets still anticipate two cuts in 2026, potentially delayed until the second quarter. The US dollar index fell below 96, hitting a four-year low, supporting dollar-denominated commodity prices and boosting demand by lowering purchasing costs for non-US currencies. Geopolitical Disturbances: Trump's "seizure by force" remarks exacerbated US-Europe fissures. While the Davos framework agreement eased tensions, escalating Iran nuclear negotiations in the Middle East and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up crude oil's geopolitical premium, indirectly pulling copper prices higher. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to affect European energy costs, pressuring smelter profitability and reinforcing copper price support through supply-side disruptions. Accelerating De-dollarization: Canadian institutions increasing holdings of Swiss Francs, Yen, and gold, alongside concerns about US dollar credibility, are prompting capital allocation towards copper and precious metals. A weaker dollar boosting gold's rally, combined with new energy demand expectations, resulted in copper price gains significantly stronger than in 2025.
(二) Supply-Demand Dynamics: Dynamic Balance Between Strong Expectations and Weak Reality Supply-Side Constraints: Global copper mine production growth is a mere 0.9%, with frequent incidents like strikes at Chile's Mantoverde and mudslides at Indonesia's Grasberg. The ICSG predicts a deficit of 800,000-1,000,000 tons for 2025. China's dependence on imported copper concentrate exceeds 90%, with long-term contract TC rates falling to 0 USD/ton. Policy is promoting a dual strategy of "overseas cooperation + recycling," targeting a 28% share for recycled copper by 2028. Smelters face production cut pressure due to low processing fees; December domestic refined copper output was 1.326 million tons (up 9.1% YoY), but social inventories accumulated to 225,900 tons; COMEX inventories exceeding 550,000 short tons indicate a US siphon effect. Demand-Side Resilience: New energy vehicle sales are forecast at 19 million units (up 15.2% YoY), with copper usage per vehicle at 83kg. Accelerated UHV power grid construction and the AI revolution are expected to drive demand increments exceeding 1 million tons. However, high copper prices are curbing downstream procurement; domestic electrolytic copper social inventories rose to 327,500 tons in January, with spot premiums turning to discounts, indicating weak market trading sentiment. The Spring Festival seasonal lull is apparent, with processing plants gradually closing for holidays, leading to weaker raw material procurement demand.
(三) Market Dynamics: Intertwined Capital Sentiment and Policy Dividends Spillover of Capital Sentiment: Precious metals continued their meteoric rise, and a downward shift in the dollar index propelled other metals to new highs. Expectations of Southern Copper's production decline and bullish calls from multiple authoritative institutions pushed Shanghai copper above the key 110,000 yuan/ton level. The SHFE raised margin requirements and price limits to 8%-10% to curb speculation, but pre-holiday optimism continued to support prices at elevated levels. Domestic Policy Dividends: "Two New" funds exceeding 150 billion yuan have been allocated, covering industry, energy, education, healthcare, etc., driving total investment over 460 billion yuan. Grid investment exceeds 825 billion yuan, with UHV and digital upgrades boosting demand for cables and connectors. The expansion of subsidies under the new energy vehicle replacement policy is driving growth in lithium battery copper foil and copper used in drive motor systems.
In summary, during January 2026, copper prices demonstrated resilience amid macroeconomic博弈, with the bull market logic prevailing throughout. Short-term caution is warranted for potential high-level corrections, while medium to long-term support for higher price centers comes from new energy demand, low interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums. Investors should monitor Fed policy, geopolitical conflicts, and the realization of Chinese demand, while managing risks effectively.
Outlook: Continuation of Bull Logic and Risk Hedging Influenced by expectations that Kevin Warsh might be appointed by Trump as the next Fed Chair, the US dollar halted its decline and rebounded on Friday, January 30th. Analyzing the current Fed Chair candidate landscape, if Warsh is elected, markets could face sustained pressure for rate cuts. However, considering the voting pattern of the last FOMC meeting, the pace of cuts may not be smooth. The market currently misjudges the speed of cuts, and the Fed's rate-cutting rhythm is expected to be slower than market expectations and hopes. Furthermore, the market perceives Warsh's policy stance as more moderate than Hassett's, and driven by this, the US dollar is expected to have room for a rebound in February.
Regarding copper prices, based on the current market situation, the strong rally is expected to continue leading up to the Chinese New Year, with prices likely trading between 102,000 and 120,000 yuan/ton from February 2nd to 7th. However, high prices will suppress demand, and continuous inventory accumulation could trigger short-term pullbacks. Currently in a consumption off-season, micro-level demand release is insufficient, the consumption end is weakening, and short-term demand is unlikely to expand significantly, with the market primarily engaging in buying on dips. Participation is expected to decrease next week; under a scenario of weak supply and demand, spot premiums will likely maintain weak consolidation, and upward pressure on copper prices remains.
From a medium to long-term perspective, facing the dual challenges of rising copper price centers and RMB appreciation, leading companies, leveraging their pricing power, cost pass-through mechanisms, and exchange rate risk management advantages, are expected to maintain stable profitability. Current sector valuations are at historical lows, offering significant配置 value due to their growth potential and high dividend characteristics.
Risk Factors: Unexpectedly hawkish Fed policy, escalated geopolitical conflicts causing supply disruptions, and a global demand recovery falling short of expectations could potentially suppress copper prices. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies, the pace of European defense expansion, and the implementation strength of Chinese policies.
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