Protein Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined, pressured by concerns over U.S. soybean demand. The market anticipates that purchases of U.S. soybeans will not increase, given weak demand from consuming countries and competitive pricing of Brazilian supplies. Private exporters reported sales of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans to an unknown destination, with 120,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year and 132,000 tons for the 2026/27 year. Seasonal shutdowns at U.S. soybean crushing plants are expected to slow the crush rate in April. Domestically, protein meal prices followed the upward trend, maintaining a volatile but relatively strong pattern. Significant pressure from soybean arrivals in May and severe losses in the livestock sector have led to stagnant spot prices relative to futures, keeping the basis market weak. There are no supply concerns for domestic soybean meal, with the market closely watching U.S. diplomatic visits. Trading strategy: Consider short-term long positions.
Oils and Fats: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell to a two-month low, weighed down by ongoing uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel blending policies and market expectations of an export tax reduction. Canola prices also dropped, following a sell-off in U.S. soybeans. Cooler temperatures in Canadian canola-growing regions have delayed seeding, prompting some farmers to prioritize planting grains and pulses. Canola will be seeded last, with the amount of nitrogen fertilizer purchased by farmers determining the final planted area. In the domestic market, oils and fats traded within a range, with palm oil showing relative weakness and soybean oil remaining relatively firm. High supply pressure from palm oil origins and declining import costs have contributed to palm oil's weaker performance. As rapeseed arrivals increase, crusher operations have notably recovered, leading to a gradual rise in rapeseed oil supply and inventory rebuild. Slow customs clearance for Brazilian soybeans and an upcoming auction of 60,000 tons of imported soybeans are expected to help soybean oil inventories gradually accumulate. Trading strategy: Engage in short-term positions.
Live Hogs: This week, live hog futures initially weakened before strengthening, with prices showing a volatile pattern. In the spot market, hog prices in Northeast China were mostly stable with minor adjustments, while prices in Henan province were generally steady. In Heilongjiang, the mainstream transaction price for hogs was 9.19 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. In Jilin, the mainstream price was 9.35 yuan/kg, also up 0.01 yuan/kg. In Liaoning, the mainstream ex-farm price was 9.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg. In Inner Mongolia, the mainstream transaction price was 9.52 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg. In Henan, the average ex-farm price was 9.95 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg. Large farms in the region quoted prices of 9.90-10.15 yuan/kg for 120-130 kg fine-breed hogs; medium and small farms quoted 9.60-9.80 yuan/kg for 120-125 kg hogs; and prices for 155-165 kg fine-breed hogs were 9.80-10.00 yuan/kg. Technically, spot market quotes remain stable, with Henan spot prices holding around the 10 yuan/kg psychological level. For the September contract, consider buying opportunities after the current adjustment concludes.
Eggs: On Thursday, egg futures were volatile in the morning session before rebounding in the afternoon. The June 2026 contract closed up 1.14% at 3,647 yuan/500 kg, while the July 2026 contract rose 1.78%. Due to exchange position limits, main fund flow shifted from the June contract to the July contract. Spot data from Zhuochuang showed the national average egg price at 4.29 yuan/jin yesterday, down 0.08 yuan/jin. In producing areas, pink-shell eggs in Ningjin were priced at 4.2 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, while brown-shell eggs in Heishan were at 4.0 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. In consumption areas, brown-shell eggs in Puxi held steady at 4.62 yuan/jin, while those in Guangzhou were at 4.55 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Terminal demand varied, with most traders purchasing based on immediate needs. Egg prices in major consumption markets were mostly stable with minor adjustments. Prices retreated in producing areas, lowering costs for consumption areas. Short-term supply-side improvements have supported both futures and spot prices. However, as spot prices rebound, breeding profits increase, reducing culling intentions, which is unfavorable for future capacity reduction. Coupled with the upcoming rainy season, which may prompt cautious trade stockpiling, there is an expectation for potential price declines. Monitor opportunities for selling on rallies, while remaining alert to potential disruptions from increased culling or strength in related commodity prices.
Corn: This week, corn futures initially fell before rising, with prices fluctuating around news related to substitute grain (rice) supplies, showing a short-term volatile pattern. Currently, corn prices at northern ports have rebounded slightly in tandem with futures, but prices in Northeast producing regions remain generally stable with a slight weak bias. Traders show limited willingness to sell at low prices, but overall market activity remains subdued. Corn prices in North China are generally stable with minor local fluctuations. The market is still in a phase of inventory clearance ahead of the new wheat harvest, but traders are adjusting their sales pace flexibly based on price movements, maintaining a dynamic supply-demand balance. Prices in consumption regions have stabilized with a slight firming bias. Strength in the futures market provides some support to spot prices, but weak demand limits the upside potential. Limited arrivals in consumption regions, coupled with routine restocking by processors, result in tepid market activity and a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment. The recent shift from weakness to strength in the futures market has altered spot market sentiment, with traders holding prices firm for sales. With relatively stable demand, corn prices are expected to consolidate within a narrow range in the near term.
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