On January 19, the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference on the 2025 Sichuan livelihood survey data. Data revealed that in 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 2.8%. How should the province's price trends be interpreted? What positive changes lie behind the low-level operation of CPI and PPI? Relevant department heads from the Sichuan Survey Team provided an analysis.
For the full year, CPI remained low, but signals of price improvement gradually strengthened. "Quarterly analysis shows Sichuan's CPI started high, then dropped, touched bottom, and subsequently rebounded," introduced Liu Min, Director of the Consumer Price Survey Division. Specifically, the CPI was flat year-on-year in the first quarter, down 0.2% in the first half, down 0.4% for the first three quarters, and down 0.3% for the full year.
Why did Sichuan's CPI remain low throughout 2025? "This was mainly influenced by insufficient effective domestic demand, disorderly price competition in some sectors, declining hog prices, and fluctuating lower international crude oil prices," analyzed Liu Min. In detail, consumer spending remained cautious in 2025, with weak willingness to consume. Prices for food items like pork stayed low; Sichuan's prices for pork, chicken, and eggs fell by 7.2%, 1.5%, and 6.8% respectively. The ongoing adjustment in the real estate market also impacted related prices, with housing decoration material prices in Sichuan dropping 2.0% in 2025. Furthermore, downward pressure from imported prices of some bulk commodities was transmitted; according to customs statistics, the average import prices of iron ore, crude oil, coal, natural gas, and soybeans for the first 11 months fell by 9.4%, 12.1%, 23.9%, 9.4%, and 10.7% respectively. Consequently, prices for edible vegetable oil, LPG, gasoline, and diesel in Sichuan fell by 1.4%, 3.4%, 7.1%, and 7.7% in 2025. "Inward-rolling" price competition in some industries also dragged down the CPI. Prices for fuel-powered cars, new energy vehicles, air tickets, and hotel accommodation in Sichuan dropped by 3.9%, 3.1%, 6.5%, and 3.1% respectively in 2025.
However, Liu Min pointed out that the low CPI in 2025 resulted from multiple factors, reflecting the transition between old and new economic growth drivers in China, and is considered phased and structural. As positive factors driving reasonable price increases accumulate, the price trend is gradually improving, showing signs of a pickup. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, strengthened, rising 0.5% for the full year. Core CPI, by omitting categories with high short-term volatility like pork, vegetables, and oil, better reflects long-term price trends and endogenous price changes. "The core CPI being stronger than the headline CPI and higher than the previous year indicates that the momentum for domestic demand recovery is gradually accumulating, and signals of price improvement are strengthening," Liu Min stated.
Another positive change is the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices. As efforts to expand domestic demand and counter "inward-rolling" competition gradually show results, the trend for industrial consumer goods prices improved. After turning positive with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in September, prices rose for four consecutive months, reaching a 0.4% increase by December, the highest in nearly 35 months. Additionally, the increase in service prices widened. In 2025, governments at all levels promoted the quality improvement and expansion of service consumption, enhancing its development momentum and unlocking potential. Steady growth in service consumption among urban and rural residents drove service prices higher. Service prices rose 0.5% for the year, with the increase rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to 2026, Liu Min believes that with the deepening of the strategy to expand domestic demand, the situation of strong supply and weak demand is expected to improve. Coupled with the gradual effects of countering "inward-rolling" and hog capacity reduction, positive factors for reasonable price increases are accumulating. However, factors restraining price recovery, such as still-weak consumer willingness, the ongoing real estate market adjustment, and international trade conflicts, persist. The CPI is expected to experience a moderate rebound.
Over 60% of industrial sectors saw price declines, but PPI showed positive signals by year-end. Turning to PPI, affected by both lower international commodity prices and insufficient demand in the domestic industrial goods market, Sichuan's PPI fell 2.8% year-on-year in 2025, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024. Tan Liuyan, Deputy Director of the Producer Price Survey Division, stated that Sichuan's PPI exhibited a complex trend in 2025: "overall pressure, widened decline, significant fluctuations, with positive signals emerging by year-end."
Regarding the breadth of decline, prices fell in 25 out of 39 major industrial sectors, representing a decline breadth of 64.1%, which expanded by 15.4 percentage points from 2024. The sectors dragging down PPI the most were concentrated in traditional areas like ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals, and automobile manufacturing. "Persistently weak demand from major traditional steel consumers like infrastructure investment and real estate, coupled with a widened decline in steel prices compared to last year, was a primary reason for the year-on-year PPI drop," Tan Liuyan explained. Furthermore, fierce competition in the new energy vehicle sector led to a widened decline in automobile manufacturing prices, also pulling down the PPI trend. In 2025, factory prices for automobile manufacturing fell 4.9% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.1 percentage points from 2024. Within this, prices for gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing fell 8.9%, while new energy vehicle manufacturing prices fell 8.6%.
Nevertheless, some positive changes emerged within the PPI decline, with supply-demand structures improving in certain sectors, leading to stabilizing and rising prices. Specifically, industrial upgrading drove price increases in related sectors. Prices for electronic device manufacturing rose 1.2% year-on-year, mobile phone prices rose 2.5%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices rose 2.0%. In 2025, the release of consumption potential boosted demand in some consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors, leading to mild price increases. Prices for furniture manufacturing rose 0.4%, apparel prices rose 0.9%, leather and related product prices rose 0.5%, and prices for other manufacturing rose significantly by 15.0%, reflecting strengthened domestic demand's pull on industrial prices.
Tan Liuyan indicated that based on comprehensive assessment, Sichuan's PPI is expected to remain at low levels in 2026, but the year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow compared to 2025, with the price trend showing a slight warming momentum.
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