Major developments are unfolding across global markets and geopolitics. On Thursday, all three major US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.72% to 7,730.99, the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.57% to 26,541.35, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging up 0.20% to 53,569.44. NVIDIA shares surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value, after the chipmaker issued better-than-expected guidance and a rare projection of roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, reinforcing the view that AI computing demand remains far from peaking and easing investor concerns about an AI bubble or slowing capital expenditure.
Other tech names were mixed, with Tesla up 2.60%, Microsoft up 1.75%, Apple up 0.36%, Alphabet down 0.41%, Meta down 0.87%, and Amazon down 1.54%. Memory chip stocks were uneven, with SK Hynix gaining over 2%, while Western Digital fell 1.47% and SanDisk dropped 0.96%.
In commodities, oil prices moved higher, with Brent crude futures rising 2.1% and WTI crude futures up 1.6%. Spot gold edged up 0.15% to $4,601.58 per ounce, while spot silver gained 1.69% to $69.25 per ounce.
On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration has reportedly signaled to mediators that it has no intention of reviving the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June, according to the Wall Street Journal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday that no negotiations are currently taking place between the US and Iran, while Washington continues to apply economic pressure through all available means. Leavitt also stated that President Trump "retains all options" and that his primary goal is "to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon."
On the same day, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Rezaei said Tehran has prepared a list of conditions to present to the US. He noted that vessels are currently permitted to pass temporarily through specific lanes in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz, but future passage will depend on adherence to the memorandum of understanding signed with the US.
Investor attention now shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which will be scrutinized for clues on how the Fed views the latest inflation data and the Treasury Department's efforts to push down long-term bond yields.
Iran Denies Alleged Plot Against Trump's Youngest Son
Iran's top security official Rezaei dismissed as "lies" reports suggesting Tehran was planning to assassinate Barron Trump, the youngest son of former President Trump, according to Lebanon's Al-Manar TV. The US Secret Service had said on Tuesday that it was aware of a video aired by Iranian state television depicting a potential assassination plot against Barron Trump.
US Reportedly Close to Acquiring Stake in Venezuelan Oil Fields
US media reports indicate that the Trump administration is negotiating a "large-scale" agreement with Venezuela's interim government that could grant the US partial ownership of several Venezuelan oil fields. Two US officials said the talks involve more than a dozen producing fields with combined reserves of approximately 90 million barrels. If finalized, the deal could more than double US oil reserve figures.
This would represent a significant expansion of US involvement in Venezuela's oil sector. The administration hopes to bring American energy companies and capital to boost Venezuelan output while strengthening US influence in the Western Hemisphere's energy landscape. Specific terms remain under negotiation, with no clear timeline for finalization.
Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Strike Hawkish Tone
The Treasury's recent expansion of long-duration bond buybacks has pushed down long-end yields and the dollar index, triggering a strong rebound in precious metals prices. Wang Na, research institute deputy director at Guolian Futures, noted that with solid US economic fundamentals and elevated Treasury yields, the probability of another Fed rate hike is low, with a September pause remaining the base case. July core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year, while headline PCE climbed 3.7%, still well above the 2% target, indicating sticky inflation.
"More critically, rising long-end Treasury yields have already achieved some monetary tightening effects. Another hike would further destabilize the bond market," Wang Na said. She expects Warsh to deliver a hawkish signal at Jackson Hole to restore policy credibility, but this would likely be about managing inflation expectations rather than an actual rate hike.
Wang Weimang, investment manager at Zhonghui Futures, sees roughly a 40% probability of a September hike and nearly 50% odds of a rate increase resuming within the year. Weakness in employment data and 30-year Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs impose hard constraints on financial stability. A rate hike would require oil prices to spike again alongside monthly CPI readings consistently above 0.4%.
Following the rapid rise in precious metals, market views on further upside are diverging. CFTC positioning data from July 28 to August 18 shows managed money and other funds collectively net bought $22.2 billion in gold futures, comprising $13.6 billion in new longs and $8.6 billion in short covering.
"The long-term foundation for higher precious metals prices remains intact, but the short-term surge leaves room for a pullback," Wang Na said. Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, Bank of Japan policy moves, and the actual impact of Treasury buybacks will all influence precious metals prices.
Wang Weimang noted that gold has accumulated substantial profit-taking between $4,650 and $4,680 per ounce in the short term. A hawkish Warsh speech could trigger a modest correction, while a dovish tone might push gold toward higher levels. In the medium term, central bank gold purchases provide a floor, limiting downside. On silver, Wang Na said the current rally is gold-led. Although industrial demand from solar and hydrogen sectors offers support, declining photovoltaic installation growth in 2026 and silver substitution technologies cap demand expansion. Only a confirmed increase in industrial demand would repair the gold-silver ratio.
"Silver faces structural supply shortages and multi-year low inventories, but weak global manufacturing activity means industrial demand alone cannot drive silver prices higher," Wang Weimang added, expecting the divergence between gold and silver to persist in the near term.
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