GTHT: Capital Leverage Optimization to Unlock Long-Term ROE Growth for Top-Tier Brokers

Stock News12-08

GTHT released a research report stating that Chairman Wu Qing's speech proposed appropriately "loosening restrictions" for high-quality institutions, further optimizing risk control indicators, and moderately easing capital space and leverage limits. The essence of optimizing capital leverage lies in shifting the industry's focus from scale-driven operations to risk pricing and from license-based advantages to professional management. This is expected to drive brokers to prioritize profitability through expertise, marking a significant positive for top-tier brokers and a key catalyst for sector valuation recovery.

Key points from GTHT's analysis include: - **Event Recap**: On December 6, Chairman Wu Qing addressed the 8th Member Congress of the Securities Association of China, emphasizing "strengthening differentiated supervision and 'supporting the strong while limiting the weak.' High-quality institutions will see appropriately relaxed restrictions, with further optimization of risk control indicators and moderate easing of capital and leverage constraints to improve capital utilization efficiency." - **Industry Context**: Capital leverage optimization aligns with the objective demand for professional operations. Partial adjustments were already implemented last year, such as the revised risk capital reserve calculation standards in September, which reduced adjustment coefficients for higher-rated brokers, differentially freeing up capital for top firms. - **Leverage Gap**: Chinese brokers’ leverage ratios remain significantly lower than domestic/global financial peers (average 3.3x for listed brokers vs. 12.2x for domestic banks, 14.4x for Goldman Sachs, and 12.5x for Morgan Stanley in H1 2025). Regulatory constraints, especially on top brokers regarding risk control metrics and derivatives, are a key limiting factor. - **ROE Upside**: Under the current framework, the theoretical leverage ceiling for brokers is ~6x (higher for top-tier firms). Long-term growth in capital-intensive businesses (e.g., margin trading, derivatives, cross-border services) could enable leading brokers to leverage policy easing for sustained ROE expansion.

**Risks**: Policy implementation delays; significant market volatility.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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