Wood Mackenzie has indicated that Brent crude oil could potentially surge to $200 per barrel under a worst-case scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The firm notes that over 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate supply from the Persian Gulf region is currently at risk of disruption. The consultancy outlined three potential price scenarios: A swift peace agreement resolving the Iran conflict. If a peace deal is reached soon and the strait reopens by June, prompt Brent prices could fall back to $80 per barrel by year-end, declining further to $65 by 2027, as the market returns to a surplus. Global economic growth would slow from 3% in 2025 to 2.3% this year, with recession confined to the Middle East. Economies would largely be back on track by late 2026. A summer settlement. A ceasefire holds, but negotiations extend through late summer, with the strait largely closed until September. Supply shortages would persist into the third quarter, causing a mild global recession in the second half of 2026 and resulting in "mild but permanent economic scarring" compared to pre-war conditions. A prolonged disruption. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of 2026, with recurring tensions keeping over 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate capacity offline. By year-end, Brent prices could approach $200 per barrel, while diesel and jet fuel prices in key hubs could near $300 per barrel. The global economy could contract by 0.4% in 2026, with economic impacts being "severe and uneven" across regions. Middle East GDP is projected to shrink by 10.7% in 2026, while the EU-27's GDP could decline by 1.5% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027. U.S. GDP growth in both years would fall below 1%. Oil-importing nations may aggressively pursue electrification strategies to reduce dependence on imported oil.
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