Yesterday, the ChiNext Index experienced a surge followed by a pullback. The combined trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 47.6 billion yuan from the previous session, marking the second consecutive day with a turnover exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, the commercial aerospace concept saw repeated active trading, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit-up; LeiKong Defense achieved six consecutive limit-up boards, and Goldwind Science & Technology secured two. The coal sector continued its upward trajectory, with Dayou Energy and Shaanxi Heimao rising by the daily limit. Semiconductor equipment stocks maintained their strong momentum, with Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (AMEC) and NAURA Technology Group posting significant gains to reach new historical highs. The photoresist concept also performed actively, with Guofeng New Material hitting two limit-up boards in three days, while Jiatong Advanced Materials and eflex rising by the limit. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.31%.
In today's broker morning meetings, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) expressed the view that significant dividends will become apparent in the refining, shale oil, and natural gas sectors by 2026.
CSC anticipates that the global crude oil market will formally enter a cycle of supply surplus in 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an oversupply of 3.84 million barrels per day, with a systemic downward shift in the oil price center becoming the main trend. However, geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and inventory fluctuations are still expected to create periodic trading opportunities. The real structural opportunity is shifting from "oil prices" to "companies": high crack spreads in the refining sector, the production resilience of U.S. shale oil around $60 per barrel, and the warming of natural gas mergers and acquisitions driven by LNG expansion and power demand constitute the core beneficiary directions in a low oil price environment.
Looking ahead to 2026, the AI narrative is expected to evolve in depth, continuing to dominate the value reshaping of the technology sector. A paradigm shift in market focus from "model iteration" to "scenario implementation" is anticipated. Computing power, as infrastructure, remains a solid ballast. The hardware layer is poised for dual resonance from "autonomous controllability" and "prosperity spillover": domestically, there is optimism for systemic breakthroughs in domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment under the trend of autonomous controllability; externally, there is an opportunity to grasp the super cycle of AI PCBs and memory driven by global demand resonance. Meanwhile, the alpha for excess returns may stem from an explosion in the application layer: key areas of optimism include the non-linear growth of AI Agents, multimodal AI, AI+office/coding, emotional companionship AI, and AI hardware. Furthermore, the capitalization process of leading model and application unicorns will provide a crucial valuation anchor and revaluation opportunity for the sector. Regarding overseas markets, although U.S. tech stocks may face volatility, a 20% index-level return remains a reasonable and expected target underpinned by earnings performance.
The domestic advanced manufacturing industry is relatively mature. Leveraging a complete industrial system and significant efficiency and cost advantages, it has established robust competitiveness globally. Within new energy, the lithium battery sector leads globally in scale and profitability, with leading companies generally valued lower than their overseas counterparts, highlighting outstanding cost-performance advantages. While the profitability of the wind power sector is weaker than overseas, its valuation is also correspondingly lower. The high-end equipment and new materials industries exhibit profitability comparable to overseas leaders, with valuations at reasonable levels, yet there remains significant room for improvement in global expansion. Subsequently, focus should be placed on the value re-assessment of leading companies with outstanding profitability and deep global layouts, as well as the investment opportunities presented by high-quality manufacturing enterprises expanding overseas.
Comments