Over the past week, amidst escalating Middle East tensions following strong statements from Iran's new Supreme Leader, the Hong Kong stock market demonstrated notable resilience as anticipated. However, the situation remains precarious. Former US President Trump announced airstrikes on Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, threatening to target its petroleum facilities. Iran responded by warning it would destroy equivalent US-associated assets if its oil infrastructure were attacked. Market participants are closely monitoring subsequent developments, particularly the potential involvement of US Marine ground forces on Kharg Island.
There are tentative signs of easing in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports indicating that France and other European nations have initiated preliminary contacts with Iran. The objective is to secure safe passage for their vessels through the critical waterway. The trajectory of oil prices remains heavily dependent on developments surrounding Kharg Island.
Concurrently, the US stock market appears vulnerable, making foreign capital movements particularly significant. The primary source of market liquidity增量 currently stems from mainland Chinese funds, as evidenced by the strong performance of newly added southbound trading connect stocks last week. Investment opportunities continue to revolve around the spillover effects of geopolitical risks. For instance, Germany's Chemical Industry Association has reported that numerous companies are beginning to reduce production due to supply chain disruptions and soaring energy costs. This suggests the chemical sector may face prolonged supply constraints, leading to rising price expectations.
In a related development, a senior Iranian official stated that Iran is considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on the condition that the oil shipments are settled in Chinese Yuan. This, combined with anticipated licenses for stablecoins, is expected to generate speculative interest.
The GTC 2026 conference keynote is scheduled for March 15 in San Jose, California, with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech set for 02:00 Beijing Time on Tuesday, March 17. The market will be watching for highlighted industry directions.
【Stock Pick of the Week】HAITIAN FLAV (03288) The company reported revenue of RMB 21.628 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 5.322 billion, up 10.54% YoY, while adjusted net profit was RMB 5.155 billion, rising 11.72% YoY. A special dividend of RMB 1.754 billion was declared. Domestic consumer staple prices showed a recovery trend in February.
HAITIAN FLAV has ranked first in the C-BPI seasoning industry for 15 consecutive years, demonstrating steady sales growth. It has held the top spot in soy sauce for 15 years, oyster sauce and condiments for 6 years, and vinegar for 2 years. The company possesses the world's largest production capacity, exceeding 4.5 million tons, approximately equal to the combined capacity of the 2nd to 5th largest players globally. It operates the soy sauce industry's sole Lighthouse Factory (Gaoming base), featuring AI and 5G-enabled smart manufacturing throughout the process.
Key technological advantages include 180-day fermentation, 135°C sterilization, and leading zero-additive technology, with healthy product lines growing over 30%. Procurement, production, and distribution costs are 15%-20% lower than peers, yielding significant per-ton cost advantages. The distribution network includes over 6,700 dealers covering more than 5 million endpoints, achieving full coverage down to county, town, and village levels.
The food service channel accounts for 60% of sales, with an 83% chef loyalty rate and extremely high switching costs. Offline channels comprise over 94% of sales, with full control across food service, supermarkets, and distribution. Online sales are growing rapidly (+43.2% in Q1 2025), enabling omni-channel synergy.
Core strengths include product mix upgrading, with the zero-additive series now exceeding 20% of sales, driving increases in both average selling price and gross margin through health-focused demand. Vinegar, cooking wine, and compound seasonings are experiencing rapid volume growth. Recovery in the餐饮 sector and deep channel penetration are leading to continued market share gains (soy sauce share exceeds 30%). International expansion is accelerating in Southeast Asia and North America, with a target to double overseas revenue within three years. Efforts in online and new retail are further boosting consumer penetration.
The company exhibits stable performance, strong cash flow, and a commitment to high dividends, with an annual cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80%, making the dividend yield highly attractive. It benefits from cost improvements, a recovery in the餐饮 industry, and stronger-than-expected demand for staples, with the餐饮 rebound directly benefiting the leading seasoning company.
【Industry Observation】 The "Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly includes "green hydrogen" in its new industries and tracks column, emphasizing the "extension of the green hydrogen产业链 towards green ammonia/methanol and sustainable aviation fuel, and expanding hydrogen applications in transportation, power, and industrial sectors." In the section on "Strengthening the Efficient Supply of Computing Power, Algorithms, and Data," it clearly proposes "promoting the coordinated layout of green power and computing power," deeply integrating energy strategy with digital economy infrastructure to achieve low-cost, green construction of computing resources.
Both computing operations and green hydrogen production require highly stable and continuous power input. When wind and solar are the primary power sources, energy storage is essential. Wind power, with its all-weather generation capability and relatively lower "output simultaneity rate," remains a more suitable choice compared to solar PV.
Offshore wind is a major potential source of power supply growth in Europe, with frequent positive signals recently. Given its optimal resource endowment and relatively mature local supply chain in Europe, offshore wind will be a long-term focus for European energy infrastructure. Recent developments, such as the UK abolishing import tariffs on wind power industrial products and Germany's offshore wind association admitting Mingyang Smart Energy, demonstrate the commitment of major European nations and a more pragmatic approach to incorporating international supply chains. Chinese companies are engaging through local capacity building and strengthened cooperation with local supply chains, a mutual effort that will enhance the certainty of European offshore wind project development.
Domestically, the 15th Five-Year Plan outlines four major offshore wind bases and sets a target of 100 GW cumulative grid-connected capacity by 2030 (implying an average of over 10 GW annually during the 15th FYP period, seen as a baseline). Considering the favorable electricity prices in coastal regions and attractive returns, actual installation scale is likely to exceed planning targets. Guojin Securities believes the status of the wind power industry within Chinese and global energy systems will gradually rise. Domestic onshore wind turbine bidding prices increased throughout 2025 and have remained high this year, which will continue to contribute to the earnings growth elasticity of supply chain companies in 2026-27. The wind power sector is viewed favorably, potentially following power grid equipment in experiencing a dual boost from earnings and valuation, leading to a comprehensive value reassessment. In Hong Kong stocks, focus on companies like Longyuan Power (00916) and Goldwind Science & Technology (02208).
【Market Data】 Exchange data shows the total open interest for Hang Seng Index Futures (March) is 120,309 contracts, with a net open interest of 47,356 contracts. The settlement date is March 30, 2026. With the Hang Seng Index at 25,466 points, and a dense concentration of callable bull/bear certificates (牛证) near the pivot below, there is downward pressure on the index. The ongoing corporate earnings season and unstable Middle East situation add to the uncertainty. A sharp rise in oil prices has already triggered a significant increase in US gasoline prices, diminishing near-term hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The outlook for the Hang Seng Index this week is bearish.
【Market Commentary】 From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index experienced a minor pullback during the week, but the Hang Seng Tech Index and the HSCEI showed relative resilience. Sector divergence approached historical extremes: the energy sector led gains catalyzed by rising oil prices, while value sectors like finance and property faced pressure. Following substantial corrections, growth sectors are gradually attracting renewed capital attention. Southbound capital recorded a net weekly purchase exceeding HKD 50 billion, setting a historical record and confirming robust underlying support for Hong Kong stocks. Despite external pressures from geopolitical conflicts and a strong US dollar, the Hong Kong market has not exhibited extreme panic. Instead, the appeal of high dividend yields and the valuation recovery potential in growth sectors are attracting long-term capital allocation.
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