We believe that performance across consumer-related categories improved in September, while National Day travel, accommodation, and dining service consumption maintained growth, pointing to some signs of recovery in consumer demand.
We suggest watching hotels, scenic spots, restaurants, and retail, with close attention to hotel volume and pricing, scenic-area visitor flows and spending per visitor, restaurant same-store performance, and changes in retail terminal sales, as well as how demand improvement feeds into corporate revenue, profit, and cash flow.
September retail sales growth picked up year over year, and consumer-related spending showed some improvement. Total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 4,243.3 billion yuan, up 1.1% year over year, 0.7 percentage points faster than in August. Among consumer-related categories, year-over-year growth in dining, cosmetics, and daily necessities all accelerated from August, while the decline in gold and silver jewelry retail narrowed. Combined with National Day holiday travel and service consumption data, travel, accommodation, and dining scenarios remained active, and the sustainability of demand improvement and corporate performance delivery should be monitored going forward.
Dining revenue growth accelerated, while beauty and daily necessities improved. September dining revenue was 460.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year over year, 1.0 percentage point faster than in August. Retail sales of cosmetics by units above the designated size were 39.0 billion yuan, up 5.4% year over year, 0.5 percentage points faster than in August; retail sales of daily necessities were 74.8 billion yuan, up 4.1% year over year, 2.3 percentage points faster than in August. The year-over-year performance of related categories improved, and going forward, fourth-quarter promotional sales, discount levels, and corporate operating data can be used to observe how demand transmits into revenue and profit.
The decline in gold and silver jewelry retail narrowed, though terminal demand still needs continued tracking. In September, retail sales of gold and silver jewelry by units above the designated size were 25.8 billion yuan, down 9.6% year over year, with the decline narrowing by 7.9 percentage points from August. Jewelry retail performance improved year over year but has not yet returned to positive growth. Looking ahead, changes in gold prices, sales volume, and product mix should be combined to distinguish the impact of price factors from actual purchasing demand, while also tracking same-store performance and channel inventory of key brands.
National Day service consumption continued to grow, while travel spending growth lagged visitor growth. According to value-added tax invoice data from the State Taxation Administration, during the 2026 National Day holiday, average daily sales revenue in industries related to national service consumption rose 19.5% year over year. According to estimates from the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the seven-day National Day holiday, domestic trips totaled 826 million and total domestic travel spending reached 738.375 billion yuan, up 6.3% and 4.3% year over year, respectively, on a comparable daily average basis. Travel demand continued to be released, but travel spending growth was lower than visitor growth, reflecting continued pressure on spending per trip, and attention should be paid to how visitor flows convert into consumption amounts and corporate profitability.
Sales revenue from travel and accommodation services increased. According to value-added tax invoice data from the State Taxation Administration, during the National Day holiday, sales revenue from travel tours and entertainment services rose 23.6% year over year, among which travel agency services and amusement parks rose 26.2% and 41.2%, respectively; sales revenue from economy hotel chains and homestay services rose 6.3% and 12.8%, respectively. Demand was released in related consumption scenarios, and going forward, corporate disclosures should still be combined to observe hotel occupancy rates, room rates, and operating profit performance.
Dining consumption demand was released, with foot traffic and revenue rising together in key commercial districts. According to value-added tax invoice data from the State Taxation Administration, during the National Day holiday, sales revenue from dining services rose 9.0% year over year, among which snack and fast-food services rose 15.5% and 30.6%, respectively; beverage and cold drink services rose by more than twofold year over year. According to Ministry of Commerce big data, in the first three days of the National Day holiday, foot traffic and revenue in 78 key monitored pedestrian streets (commercial districts) rose 3.4% and 5.3% year over year, respectively. Holiday dining and sample commercial district consumption maintained growth, and the sustainability of restaurant same-store performance and retail terminal sales should be monitored going forward.
Investment recommendation: We believe that performance across consumer-related categories improved in September, while National Day travel, accommodation, and dining service consumption maintained growth, showing some signs of recovery in consumer demand. We suggest watching hotels, scenic spots, restaurants, and retail, with close attention to hotel volume and pricing, scenic-area visitor flows and spending per visitor, restaurant same-store performance, and changes in retail terminal sales, as well as how demand improvement feeds into corporate revenue, profit, and cash flow.
Risk warning: Consumer demand recovery may fall short of expectations, industry competition may intensify, severe weather may affect holiday travel, gold price fluctuations may affect jewelry consumption, and the conversion of industry consumption growth into corporate profitability may fall short of expectations.
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