Abstract
QCR Holdings Inc will report quarterly results on January 27, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates the latest quarter’s actuals and the upcoming quarter’s revenue, margin, net profit, and EPS outlook based on company indications and market forecasts.Market Forecast
Consensus tracking of QCR Holdings Inc points to current-quarter revenue of $73.43 million, implying a year-over-year increase of 12.16%, with estimated EBIT of $51.02 million and estimated EPS of $1.99, reflecting a 6.61% EBIT YoY increase and a 14.75% EPS YoY increase; a net profit margin forecast is not explicitly guided, while adjusted EPS is expected to trend in line with estimates. The company’s main business is commercial banking, and management focus remains on core spread income and fee mix; the business outlook highlights stable deposit costs and disciplined loan growth. Wealth and other fee-generating activities present the largest potential upside, supported by recent trends; revenue for this segment is $40.79 million with momentum, while internal offsets are expected to normalize.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, QCR Holdings Inc reported revenue of $64.80 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $36.71 million, a net profit margin of 37.79%, and adjusted EPS of $2.16; revenue grew 8.50% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS rose 21.35% year-over-year. Net profit increased quarter-on-quarter by 26.52%, underscoring improved cost efficiency and spread stabilization. By segment, commercial banking generated $105.82 million, with $40.79 million attributed to other activities and a negative $45.15 million internal offset, illustrating continued strength in core operations and fees.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Commercial Banking: Core spread resilience and funding discipline
Commercial banking is the core revenue driver for QCR Holdings Inc, reflected in last quarter’s $105.82 million segment revenue before internal offsets. The outlook hinges on net interest margin stabilization relative to funding cost trends. Deposit repricing pressures appear to be moderating as the interest-rate cycle shows signs of plateauing, which may support net interest income and preserve margins near recent levels. Loan growth is likely to remain measured, prioritizing credit quality over volume as underwriting remains tight across commercial and industrial and commercial real estate categories. In this context, a revenue print near $73.43 million for the consolidated quarter implies that the company continues to optimize balance sheet mix and reinvest cash flows in higher-yielding assets, offsetting incremental deposit costs.Credit costs remain a watch point, but recent profitability and the 37.79% net profit margin indicate that loss provisioning and credit metrics are manageable within the current environment. Management’s discipline in deposit gathering—using granular commercial relationships and franchise-market strengths—should help maintain a healthy funding mix. Fee income from treasury services, mortgage banking, and card-related activities can complement spread income, reducing earnings volatility if loan demand is uneven. Overall, we expect EBIT of $51.02 million to be achievable if net interest margin holds steady and noninterest expense is kept in check.
Wealth and Fee Businesses: Incremental growth and diversification
The company’s “Other” line captured $40.79 million last quarter, which, despite internal eliminations, signals meaningful contribution from fee businesses such as wealth management, trust services, and other advisory-based lines. For the upcoming quarter, investor attention will focus on whether market performance and new client onboarding can sustain mid-teens EPS growth expectations of 14.75%. A constructive equity market backdrop could translate to higher asset-based fees, offering tailwinds independent of interest rate dynamics. Additionally, growth in treasury management and interchange income can enhance the revenue mix, potentially supporting consolidated margins even if loan growth remains muted.Given the forecast revenue of $73.43 million and EBIT of $51.02 million, the fee mix has room to increase its share, particularly if deposit betas continue to decelerate and the company leans into cross-sell opportunities across its commercial client base. The interplay between net interest income and fee income is critical for maintaining return on equity through the cycle. Execution on technology-enabled client services and relationship expansion should underpin incremental fee growth, supporting EPS near the $1.99 estimate.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Margins, credit quality, and funding mix
Three variables are likely to drive the stock’s reaction to results. The first is net interest margin stability relative to deposit costs; evidence that funding pressure is easing would validate the earnings forecast and support valuation. The second is credit quality, where steady nonperforming asset levels and contained net charge-offs can reinforce confidence in the sustainability of the 37.79% net margin reported last quarter. The third is operating leverage—if expenses remain well controlled and fee income rises, EBIT of $51.02 million becomes more defensible, enabling EPS delivery at $1.99 despite revenue variability.Any deviation in these drivers may produce asymmetric stock responses. A positive surprise on fee income or lower-than-expected funding costs could lift EPS beyond the $1.99 marker, whereas incremental credit provisioning would weigh on profitability even if revenue tracks near $73.43 million. Investors should also monitor commentary on deposit trends and competitive pricing in core markets, as this will set the tone for guidance into subsequent quarters.
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