Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On Monday, April 13, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold opened with a decline exceeding 2%, currently trading near $4,689 per ounce. The negotiations held between the United States and Iran on Saturday failed to yield any agreement, primarily due to setbacks on three key issues: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and the unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets. Following the breakdown in talks, both sides resumed tough stances, with the US announcing a blockade of Iranian ports starting the 13th, while former President Trump considered limited strikes against Iran. Renewed geopolitical tensions have dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut; the probability of the Fed maintaining unchanged rates in April stands at 98.4%. Data showed US consumer prices in March recorded their largest monthly increase in nearly four years, matching expectations. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $76.26, platinum fell 2.3%, and palladium declined 1.9%, although all three were poised for weekly gains.
Gold Technical Analysis: Gold opened today with a significant gap down. The opening price for international spot gold was substantially lower than the previous session's close, and it quickly extended losses after opening, touching a low of $4,644. Intraday declines were notable, with the market showing clear weakness and concentrated selling pressure. This gap down was not due to a single factor but resulted from a combination of geopolitical, policy, and technical negatives. Short-term movement should focus on the performance near key support levels.
From a technical perspective, the breakdown has amplified the decline. Gold had been consolidating at high levels above $4,700 for an extended period, with the $4,700 level serving as a key defensive line for bulls. Today's opening price fell directly below this support, triggering programmed stop-loss selling from positioned holders. Combined with low liquidity in the early session, selling pressure could not be effectively absorbed, creating a negative feedback loop of "breakdown accelerating declines" that led to the gap down. For support, the near-term core level lies in the $4,610-$4,630 range, which is a key support zone from recent consolidation, coinciding with the 13-day exponential moving average. Stabilization here could ease selling pressure and lead to a temporary rebound. Stronger support is seen at $4,447, a significant short-term level; a break below could lead to a test near $4,400. For resistance, the primary level is the $4,700 mark, which previously served as bull defense and now acts as strong resistance after being breached. Further resistance is at $4,770, a key technical level; a break above is needed to alleviate the weak tone. Overall, the market shows clear characteristics of range-bound movement. In summary, the suggested trading approach for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary strategy. Key short-term resistance is focused in the $4,730-$4,780 range, while short-term support lies between $4,640 and $4,590.
Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis: During early Asian trading on Monday, April 13 (Beijing time), US crude oil opened higher, gaining up to 8% and briefly surpassing $105.50 per barrel. It is currently trading near $104.10 per barrel, potentially testing whether it can sustain above $105 during the session. International oil markets closed lower on Friday, with Brent crude futures down 0.8% to $95.20 per barrel and US crude futures falling 1.3% to $96.57 per barrel. For the week, they declined 12.7% and 13.4% respectively, marking their largest weekly drops since 2022. Selling emerged ahead of Iran-US talks aimed at a permanent ceasefire agreement, despite continued severe restrictions on oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks that have reduced Saudi Arabia's oil output by 600,000 barrels per day.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Technically, the daily chart structure has turned bullish again, with prices approaching a key resistance area. Current momentum indicates bulls have regained dominance. The $100 level constitutes a key psychological and technical resistance point; a decisive break above could open further upside towards the $103-$105 range. Support has shifted higher to the $95 area; a break below could lead to a retest near $92. Momentum indicators show clearly strengthening upward momentum, favoring an uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, oil prices display a clear ascending channel structure, with short-term moving arrays in a bullish formation and prices climbing steadily along the trend. Near-term support has moved up to around $97, while resistance is concentrated near the $103 mark. A break above $105 could trigger technical buying; conversely, failure there might lead to consolidation at high levels. Overall, the recommended trading approach for crude oil today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary strategy. Key short-term resistance is monitored in the $110.0-$115.0 range, while short-term support is watched between $100.0 and $95.0.
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