Bocom International released a research report indicating that national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.648 million units in March, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year decline but a 59.4% month-on-month increase. Cumulative retail sales for the first quarter amounted to 4.226 million units, a decrease of 17.4% compared to the same period last year, attributed to adjustments in new energy vehicle subsidy policies and fewer new model launches during the period.
From an export perspective, March saw new energy passenger vehicle exports surge to 349,000 units, a 140% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the rising international recognition of independent Chinese NEV brands. Looking ahead, the automotive industry is entering a period of intensive new model launches in the second quarter, with multiple key vehicle releases expected to stimulate market demand. Coupled with the catalytic effect of the Beijing Auto Show, industry sales are projected to continue their sequential improvement trend.
Key observations from Bocom International are as follows:
The passenger vehicle market demonstrated a clear marginal improvement in March. National retail sales totaled 1.648 million units, down 15.0% year-on-year but up 59.4% month-on-month. First-quarter cumulative sales reached 4.226 million units, a 17.4% decline year-on-year due to NEV subsidy adjustments and fewer new model launches. In terms of market structure, domestic brands performed steadily, with March retail sales of 1.02 million units, a 61% month-on-month increase. Although their market share contracted slightly by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, they maintained a dominant position with a 61.8% share. Joint venture brands sold 410,000 units in March, down 13% year-on-year but up 54% month-on-month. The market shares of German, Japanese, and American brands changed by -0.7, +1.0, and +0.1 percentage points to 16.0%, 13.3%, and 6.9%, respectively.
The new energy vehicle market experienced a strong rebound in March, with penetration rates exceeding 50% again. NEV retail sales reached 848,000 units, a substantial 82.6% month-on-month increase. Although year-on-year sales decreased by 14.4% due to a high base effect from the previous year, market penetration rose significantly by 6.6 percentage points month-on-month to 51.5%, also showing a slight 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. Across segments, electrification accelerated: domestic brands continued to lead with a NEV penetration rate of 73.5%, up 9 percentage points month-on-month; luxury brands achieved a NEV penetration rate of 33.9%, increasing by 1.3 percentage points. In terms of market share, mainstream joint venture brands' NEV share rose to 3.4% in March, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; domestic brands' NEV retail share decreased by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 66.6%; new automaker brands performed steadily, holding a 21.5% market share.
Exports continued their strong momentum, with NEVs constituting over 50% of the total. March passenger vehicle exports, including complete vehicles and CKD units, totaled 695,000 units, a 74.3% year-on-year and 25.2% month-on-month increase. Domestic brands led overseas expansion, exporting 606,000 units, a 76% year-on-year rise; joint venture and luxury brand exports reached 88,000 units, up 65% year-on-year. Benefiting from growing international recognition of independent NEVs, new energy passenger vehicle exports hit 349,000 units, surging 140% year-on-year. NEVs accounted for 50.2% of total exports, a significant increase of 13.7 percentage points compared to the previous year.
Investment insights suggest focusing on companies with high certainty for export growth this year, the commercialization progress of embodied AI in autonomous driving, technological advancements in large models by leading automakers, and their expansion into new business areas such as humanoid robotics. Recommended stocks to watch include XPENG-W, which is launching extended-range models and advancing overseas localized production, along with updates in large models and humanoid robotics; GEELY AUTO, which is driving internal resource integration after the privatization of Zeekr and seeing high growth in overseas sales; and BYD COMPANY, which continues to achieve strong export growth, with its premium brand strategy and accelerated intelligentization further enhancing profitability.
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