**Natural Rubber** On Tuesday, the domestic SHFE rubber futures contract for September 2026 (RU2609) showed a pattern of reduced volume and open interest, trading with a slightly stronger bias to close marginally higher. The settlement price rose by 0.71% to 17,740 yuan per tonne. The discount for the September-January spread narrowed to 740 yuan per tonne. The rubber market is currently in a phase of conflicting bullish and bearish sentiment, with limited room for significant moves in either direction. It is anticipated that SHFE rubber futures may maintain a pattern of high-range, consolidative trading in the near term.
**Methanol** On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract for September 2026 (MA2609) exhibited a pattern of reduced volume and open interest, trading with a slightly stronger bias to close marginally higher. The contract price reached a high of 2,974 yuan per tonne and a low of 2,918 yuan per tonne, settling with a gain of 0.34% at 2,963 yuan per tonne. The premium for the September-January spread narrowed to 108 yuan per tonne. The methanol market is currently characterized by conflicting bullish and bearish factors. Domestic maintenance at some plants has led to a decline in weekly production to below 2 million tonnes, slightly easing supply pressure. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the destocking process at ports is nearing its end. It is expected that methanol futures may continue to trade in a consolidative pattern.
**Crude Oil** On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract for July 2026 (SC2607) showed a pattern of increased volume and open interest, trading higher to close with a modest gain. The contract price reached a high of 688.9 yuan per barrel and a low of 655.0 yuan per barrel, settling with an increase of 1.31% at 681.1 yuan per barrel. Due to the fluctuating situation in the Middle East, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, sustaining a persistent risk premium for maritime transport. It is anticipated that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a pattern of firm, range-bound trading.
**1. Industry Dynamics**
**Rubber** According to Longzhong Information, as of May 17, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (including bonded and general trade) stood at 715,200 tonnes, a decrease of 3,500 tonnes or 0.49% from the previous period. Bonded warehouse inventory was 111,800 tonnes, down 6.52%. General trade inventory was 603,400 tonnes, up 0.72%. The inbound rate for bonded warehouse samples in Qingdao increased by 1.95 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 6.17 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 0.93 percentage points and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points. For the week ending May 15, 2026, the capacity utilization rate for sample semi-steel tire enterprises in China was 74.67%, up 30.78 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.46 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for sample all-steel tire enterprises was 68.56%, up 21.27 percentage points week-on-week and up 8.68 percentage points year-on-year. Following the May Day holiday, sample enterprises that underwent maintenance resumed operations around the 6th. With decent performance in foreign trade orders and low pre-holiday finished goods inventory, most enterprises rapidly ramped up production, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization this week. It is expected that capacity utilization for sample tire enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the coming period. During the Guangrao International Tire Exhibition, most facilities are expected to operate steadily, though a few enterprises have maintenance plans of about 3 days, which may exert some drag on overall capacity utilization. In April 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.575 million and 2.526 million units respectively, down 11.7% and 12.9% month-on-month, and down 1.7% and 2.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2026, cumulative automobile production and sales were 9.614 million and 9.574 million units, down 5.5% and 4.8% year-on-year respectively. In April 2026, approximately 125,000 heavy-duty trucks were sold in China, down about 10% month-on-month but up about 43% from 88,000 units in the same period last year. From January to April, cumulative sales in China's heavy-duty truck industry reached approximately 443,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 26%. China's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) for April 2026 was 51.1%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, remaining in expansion territory (above 50%).
**Methanol** For the week ending May 15, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.03%, down 1.10% week-on-week, down 2.97% month-on-month, and slightly up 0.35% year-on-year. The average weekly methanol output for the same period was 1,983,300 tonnes, down 76,900 tonnes week-on-week, down 55,500 tonnes month-on-month, and slightly down 7,800 tonnes from 1,991,100 tonnes in the same period last year. For the week ending May 15, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.04%, slightly up 0.01% week-on-week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.75%, slightly down 0.49% week-on-week. The acetic acid operating rate was 72.97%, significantly down 9.84% week-on-week. The MTBE operating rate was 51.03%, slightly up 0.02% week-on-week. For the week ending May 15, 2026, the average operating rate for domestic coal-to-olefins (methanol-to-olefins) units was 79.65%, slightly down 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and slightly down 0.76% month-on-month. As of May 15, 2026, the futures market profit for domestic methanol-to-olefins was 40 yuan per tonne, up 78 yuan per tonne week-on-week and significantly up 560 yuan per tonne month-on-month. For the week ending May 15, 2026, methanol port inventory in East and South China stood at 590,200 tonnes, significantly down 73,300 tonnes week-on-week, significantly down 93,800 tonnes month-on-month, and significantly up 200,100 tonnes year-on-year. For the week ending May 14, 2026, total inland methanol inventory in China reached 363,800 tonnes, down 40,300 tonnes week-on-week, slightly down 4,000 tonnes month-on-month, and slightly up 27,900 tonnes from 335,900 tonnes in the same period last year.
**Crude Oil** For the week ending May 8, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, up 2 week-on-week but down 64 year-on-year. For the same week, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.710 million barrels per day, up 137,000 barrels per day week-on-week and up 323,000 barrels per day year-on-year, remaining at a historically high level. As of the week ending May 8, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) stood at 452.88 million barrels, down 4.306 million barrels week-on-week but significantly up 11.046 million barrels year-on-year. Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, were 27.422 million barrels, down 1.702 million barrels week-on-week. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories were 384.1 million barrels, significantly down 8.605 million barrels week-on-week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 91.70%, up 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, up 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, and up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. As of May 12, 2026, the average WTI crude oil non-commercial net long positions stood at 169,877 contracts, significantly down 8,909 contracts week-on-week and significantly down 28,350 contracts, or 14.30%, from the April average of 198,227 contracts. Meanwhile, as of May 12, 2026, the average Brent crude oil futures fund net long positions were 315,849 contracts, significantly down 26,193 contracts week-on-week and significantly down 40,194 contracts, or 11.29%, from the April average of 356,043 contracts.
**2. Spot Price Table**
**3. Related Charts**
Comments