Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices showed weak volatility, with the import loss for domestic refined copper narrowing. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, below the expected 7.25 million and the previous figure of 6.928 million. The European Central Bank decided to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June last year, as the ECB continues to focus on inflation risks. Inventory-wise, LME stocks increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons; Comex stocks rose by 2,036 tons to 532,005 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts climbed by 907 tons to 160,679 tons, while BC copper increased by 2,052 tons to 12,667 tons. Turmoil in U.S. financial markets and a secondary correction in precious metals have again impacted the nonferrous metals market. Combined with fundamental issues facing the copper market, prices may remain volatile around the Spring Festival, and caution is advised against chasing highs. However, rigid constraints on the copper ore supply side and certainty in long-term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long-term allocation funds and industrial buying interest, suggesting that adjustments around the Spring Festival will lay a more solid foundation for medium- to long-term copper price gains.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton. LME inventories decreased by 240 tons to 286,074 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,392 tons to 50,464 tons. In terms of premiums and discounts, the LME 0-3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel discount held at -100 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, nickel ore and nickel iron prices have strengthened, indicating potential supply tightness concerns, with rising cost support. For stainless steel, weekly inventory accumulation is observed due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, although supply-side maintenance is widespread. In the new energy sector, MHP prices remain firm, providing relatively strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot trading is sluggish, and ternary material output is expected to weaken month-on-month. Recent market sentiment has weakened, dragging nickel prices lower. While demand has softened seasonally, cost support remains solid and is expected to underpin prices. Coupled with ongoing disruptions from Indonesia-related news, light long positions near cost levels may be considered. However, it is important to note that nickel lacks the fundamental support for an independent rally, so market sentiment resonance should be monitored.
Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: Overnight, alumina showed slight strength, with the AO2605 contract closing at 2,822 yuan per ton, up 1.15%, while open interest fell by 3,875 lots to 356,000 lots. SHFE aluminum weakened slightly, with the AL2603 contract closing at 23,570 yuan per ton, down 0.23%, and open interest declining by 1,047 lots to 206,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also edged lower, with the AD2603 contract closing at 22,150 yuan per ton, down 0.18%, and open interest dropping by 150 lots to 4,211 lots. Spot-wise, SMM alumina prices retreated to 2,619 yuan per ton. Aluminum ingot spot discounts narrowed to 180 yuan per ton. Foshan A00 prices were adjusted down to 23,340 yuan per ton, flat with Wuxi A00. Aluminum billet processing fees held steady in most regions, with increases of 30–50 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Guangdong. Aluminum rod processing fees for 1A60 and 6/8 series remained stable, while low-carbon aluminum rod fees fell by 453 yuan per ton. Recent increases in alumina maintenance across regions have led to narrow-range corrections due to supply disruptions. With downstream pre-holiday restocking ending and logistics stalling, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating, and prices are retreating as sentiment fades. Domestic aluminum liquid ratios are weakening, with high prices and repeated environmental controls in central China prompting downstream players to scale back or cancel pre-holiday stocking. As the holiday approaches, market sentiment is expected to ease. Developments in U.S.-Iran tensions should be monitored for potential macro impact, along with whether downstream restocking interest improves after aluminum price corrections.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: On the 5th, industrial silicon weakened, with the main 2605 contract closing at 8,605 yuan per ton, down 2.77% for the day, while open interest increased by 25,966 lots to 267,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price held steady at 9,628 yuan per ton. The lowest deliverable grade price remained at 8,850 yuan per ton, with the spot discount widening to a premium of 245 yuan per ton. Polysilicon also weakened, with the main 2605 contract closing at 49,550 yuan per ton, down 1.52%, and open interest falling by 288 lots to 38,804 lots. Baichuan’s N-type polysilicon price dropped to 52,500 yuan per ton, with the lowest deliverable grade at 52,500 yuan per ton and the spot premium widening to 4,050 yuan per ton. Silica stone producers have entered the winter maintenance period, leading to an overall contraction in ore supply. Downstream sectors are also undergoing comprehensive maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. With both supply and demand for industrial silicon declining, prices are supported by costs, but upward momentum depends on whether major producers implement larger-than-expected output cuts. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated anti-monopoly concerns in a recent meeting. Wafer manufacturers have largely halted new orders, and pessimistic sentiment persists in the crystalline silicon market, keeping polysilicon under downward pressure. Monitor whether industry inventories can ease and if polysilicon plants will expand output cuts in response.
Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures (2605 contract) fell 10.68% to 132,780 yuan per ton. Spot prices declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 144,000 yuan per ton, down 9,000 yuan, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 140,500 yuan per ton, also down 9,000 yuan. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 6,500 yuan to 140,000 yuan per ton. Warehouse receipts decreased by 327 tons to 33,787 tons. On the supply side, weekly output fell by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with spodumene-based production down 790 tons to 12,454 tons, lepidolite output up 90 tons to 2,922 tons, salt lake-based output down 75 tons to 3,130 tons, and recycled material production down 50 tons to 2,238 tons. February production schedules show battery-grade lithium carbonate output down 17.6% month-on-month to 58,835 tons, and industrial-grade output down 12.7% to 23,095 tons. Demand-side, ternary material production is scheduled to fall 14.6% to 69,250 tons, while lithium iron phosphate output is down 10.7% to 354,000 tons. Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream stocks up 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, other segments down 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream stocks down 647 tons to 18,356 tons. Market sentiment deteriorated again yesterday, leading to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures. Spot trading volume increased, mainly driven by downstream buyers. Meanwhile, shipment data from Chile showed a significant month-on-month increase, attributed to pre-holiday shipments, but the scale is unsustainable. Given recent spot trading activity, downstream Spring Festival restocking has largely concluded, with some strategic stockpiling already in place. If prices strengthen short-term, actual procurement may turn sluggish, weighing on prices. Additionally, market sentiment remains chaotic, policy effects need further observation, and end-user sales are weak, lacking clear positive catalysts. Post-volatility right-side trading opportunities may be worth monitoring.
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