Good morning. Let's first look at international markets.
Today, international oil prices opened sharply lower. WTI crude oil futures opened down more than 5%, trading at $91.75 per barrel at the time of writing, a decline of 5.02%.
Spot silver prices rose over 4%, while spot gold prices climbed more than 1%.
Trump: US-Iran Deal "Not Fully Finalized" According to reports, former US President Donald Trump stated on the 24th that the agreement between the United States and Iran is "not fully finalized," and he criticized some individuals for making uninformed criticisms.
Trump posted on social media: "If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper deal. No one has seen it or knows its contents yet. It is not fully finalized. So don't listen to the losers who are criticizing something they know nothing about."
According to US media reports, although the draft agreement's content has not been made public, some figures in the US have strongly criticized it, claiming it actually undermines the goals set by the Trump administration itself.
White House officials told media that day that the US and Iran are still "several days away" from signing an agreement.
Previously, Trump stated that negotiations between the US government and Iran were progressing "in an orderly and constructive manner" and that he had instructed US representatives not to rush into a deal because "time is on America's side." Trump also said that sanctions on Iran would remain fully in effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.
Iran States It Has Not Made Any Commitments on Nuclear Details at This Stage According to reports, on May 24 local time, Iranian officials stated that previous Israeli media reports claiming Iran would not gain access to unfrozen funds before beginning to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile were incorrect. Iran is unwilling to link the unfreezing of assets to nuclear material issues and has not made any commitments regarding the details of the nuclear issue at this stage.
Iran pointed out that once a potential understanding is announced, a portion of the frozen assets should be immediately unfrozen, and Iran's full access to these assets must be ensured. According to Iranian sources, if the frozen assets are not released, it would violate one of Iran's bottom lines, making consensus impossible.
Iran also stated that due to various reasons, including US obstruction of unfreezing Iranian assets, the content of the memorandum of understanding has not been finalized, so there remains a possibility that no consensus can be reached.
Previously, according to US media reports, as a key part of the impending deal between the US and Iran, Iran has agreed to abandon its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Iranian President: No Compromise on National Dignity According to reports, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated in an interview on May 24, "Iran is prepared to assure the world that, as emphasized during the lifetime of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran does not seek nuclear weapons, nor does it seek regional turmoil. It is Israel that is destabilizing the region."
Raisi further emphasized that neither he nor Iran's negotiation team would make any concessions regarding national dignity and pride.
Iranian Official: Management of Strait of Hormuz Will Not Return to Pre-War State According to reports, Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated on May 24 local time that the management of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state. He added that the strait is currently under Iranian control, and after the state of war ends, Iran can facilitate the passage of vessels.
Rezaei also said that Iran has not negotiated with the US over its enriched uranium stockpile, Iran will absolutely not retreat from its current position, and the US has no choice but to accept Iran's conditions.
Analysts: Oil Price Volatility May Increase Influenced by factors such as easing geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with WTI crude oil prices falling sharply by nearly 10% in after-hours trading, to around $90 per barrel. "Judging from the market reaction, investors believe that as US-Iran negotiations progress, Middle Eastern crude oil will re-enter the international market, thereby alleviating current global supply tightness," said Ye Haiwen, Manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Guomao Futures Research Institute.
Ye Haiwen indicated that market participants need to focus on the following issues: First, the progress of US-Iran negotiations and the signing of an agreement, as the two sides' positions on the enriched uranium issue remain unaligned. "Denuclearization" and the enriched uranium issue are themselves the triggers for this round of conflict and directly relate to the subsequent advancement of any agreement. There are fundamental differences in interests between the US, Israel, and Iran, creating uncertainty around future negotiation progress. Simultaneously, whether the US relaxes energy sanctions on Iran will directly determine the timing and scale of the resumption of Iranian crude oil exports. Second is the actual transit situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran has begun allowing passage for some commercial vessels, actual transit conditions in the strait remain suboptimal. Furthermore, Iran continues to emphasize that "even if an agreement is reached, the strait will be under Iran's full management," suggesting the Strait of Hormuz may still become a significant bargaining tool. Finally is the stance of OPEC+. This conflict has worsened relations among Middle Eastern countries. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ in early May may further increase crude oil supply from the region, potentially leading to a repeat of disorderly production increases.
Cai Shaoli, Director of the FICC Group at Huatai Futures, believes that significant progress in US-Iran negotiations, if followed by the successful implementation of a memorandum of understanding and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a recovery in Middle Eastern oil supply from low levels. Although a complete return to pre-war levels may be difficult in the short term, over 150 million barrels of oil in floating storage in the Persian Gulf could be rapidly released to the international market. This could lead to significant declines in international crude oil and downstream energy and chemical product prices, though they are not expected to immediately revert to pre-conflict levels. In the medium term, whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can normalize depends on the US and Iran reaching a more comprehensive agreement within a 60-day window, particularly regarding resolving major disagreements. If a framework similar to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal can ultimately be achieved, with normalized Strait of Hormuz transit and the US relaxing sanctions on Iran, then oil prices have room to fall further. Conversely, if US-Iran negotiations collapse and Iran reimposes a blockade on the strait, oil prices could return to high levels.
Ye Haiwen posits three potential scenarios for the crude oil market. The first scenario is the smooth signing and effective implementation of an agreement. In this case, geopolitical risk premiums would gradually be eliminated from crude oil prices, and international oil prices are expected to gradually fall back to the $80-85 per barrel range. However, the restart of Middle Eastern refineries and the resumption of normal tanker traffic will take time. Coupled with the approaching North American summer travel season, ongoing drawdowns in US crude inventories, and recovering demand from Asian refineries, short-term oil prices are likely to find some support. The second scenario is a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations or even an escalation of conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz is re-blocked, international oil prices could surge back towards the $120 per barrel mark, or even higher. However, current global crude oil demand expectations are not optimistic. Three major energy agencies recently lowered their 2026 crude oil demand growth forecasts, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) even projecting negative growth, indicating a relatively weak fundamental backdrop for crude oil. The third scenario involves frequent news-driven disturbances leading to sharp two-way price volatility. Over the past two months, nearly every piece of news regarding US-Iran negotiation progress has triggered unilateral price movements of over 5%, with prices quickly reversing when news is disproven. It is anticipated that before a final agreement is reached, WTI crude oil futures prices will fluctuate within a $95-105 per barrel range, with the potential for further increases in volatility.
Yang Jiaming, an energy and chemical analyst at CITIC Futures, stated that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the US lifts sanctions on Iran, the market will further focus on the impact of OPEC+ production increases and the UAE's exit from OPEC on oil prices. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz transit situation significantly affects high-sulfur fuel oil supply: Kpler data shows that since the outbreak of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflict, fuel oil exports from the Middle East have plummeted, with April export volumes dropping 68% compared to January. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, high-sulfur fuel oil will maintain a high geopolitical risk premium.
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