On March 2, energy and gold-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened strongly across the board, making related products the most closely watched assets in the market that day. According to Wind data, by the close of trading on March 2, six oil and gas-themed ETFs, including the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, Oil ETF, and ChinaAMC Oil & Gas ETF, had all recorded single-day gains of 10%. In the gold sector, several gold-themed ETFs, such as the Gold Stock ETF, Gold Equity ETF, and ICBC Gold Stock ETF, led the gains with increases exceeding 5%. By the market close, the CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index and the CSI SSE-HK Gold Industry Stock Index had risen by 9.18% and 6.88%, respectively.
Over a longer period, resource-themed index products have already staged a notable rally this year. Data shows that, as of March 2, the CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index has accumulated a year-to-date increase of 45.28%, while the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index and the S&P Global Oil Index have risen by 21.47% and 9.20%, respectively. The CSI SSE-HK Gold Industry Stock Index has climbed 39.52% year-to-date.
In terms of fund flows, capital has shown significant net inflows into these products. As of March 2, oil and gas-themed ETFs have attracted over 7.7 billion yuan in net inflows year-to-date, while gold-themed ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 107.9 billion yuan, indicating a continued and growing allocation by investors.
Commenting on the strong performance of resource-themed products, Xu Shiwei, head of the financial group at China Merchants Futures and a senior gold analyst, noted that since 2025, geopolitical risks and resource control have become core variables impacting the global supply of commodities. This has shifted commodity pricing mechanisms from purely market-driven trading to a dual-driven model incorporating both policy and market factors. Against this backdrop, countries have elevated the security of critical minerals and energy to a national strategic level, promoting strategic reserve construction and supply chain diversification.
Xu analyzed that the price center of commodities is expected to trend upward overall, maintaining a positive outlook on resource sectors such as non-ferrous metals.
Amid the sharp price increases and continuous capital inflows, risks related to secondary market premiums for these products have also emerged. On the evening of March 2, HuaBao Fund issued an announcement stating that the recent secondary market trading price of its HuaBao Oil & Gas LOF had significantly exceeded its net asset value per share, resulting in a substantial premium. The company specifically warned investors to be aware of the premium risk in the secondary market, noting that purchasing at high premiums could lead to additional costs and price risks from future premium fluctuations, potentially causing significant losses. On the same day, asset managers including GF Fund and Harvest Fund also released risk warnings regarding premiums for their oil and gas-themed ETFs.
Cui Yue, an analyst at Morningstar (China) Fund Research Center, explained that domestic commodity ETFs primarily include spot-based varieties, such as gold ETFs, and futures-based products like soybean meal and energy chemicals. Gold ETFs track gold spot contracts, with relatively manageable tracking errors, though they are still influenced by global macroeconomic policies and market sentiment. Futures-based ETFs, such as those for soybean meal and energy chemicals, require regular rolling of contracts, which can generate rollover costs and affect tracking errors. Additionally, commodities themselves are highly cyclical and volatile, resulting in relatively higher risk levels.
Cui recommended that individual investors select products aligned with their risk tolerance, prioritizing those with lower tracking errors, larger scales, and better liquidity. Investors should focus on asset allocation as a core objective and maintain reasonable position control. When trading in the secondary market, attention should also be paid to discount and premium risks, avoiding purchases during significant premiums and sales during deep discounts.
Comments