May 14: In the previous trading session on Wednesday (May 13), spot gold (London) closed with a slight decline amid choppy trading. The price remained under pressure during the day due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, and extended its losses as the US April PPI unexpectedly surged to a four-year high. Comments from a Federal Reserve official warning that interest rate hikes might be necessary to curb inflation added to the downward pressure. However, safe-haven buying and factors such as OPEC's downward revision of global oil demand growth expectations, alongside reports of progress in Iran negotiations, limited the decline in gold prices. This resulted in a narrower trading range, with the price holding above its middle Bollinger Band and the 10-day moving average, suggesting a continued high probability of range-bound movement in the near term.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4712.36 per ounce, briefly reaching an intraday high of $4726.59 before encountering resistance and retreating. It maintained a choppy downtrend, extending into the early US session to record an intraday low of $4669.52. The price then found some support and rebounded, but remained within a consolidation range, ultimately closing at $4688.12. The daily range was $57.07, with a closing loss of $24.24, or 0.51%.
Looking ahead to today, Thursday (May 14), spot gold opened with slightly stronger momentum. Crude oil extended its previous session's pullback with a weaker performance in early trading, while the US Dollar Index also faced technical resistance in the morning, providing some support for gold. However, gold still faces the risk of encountering resistance and pulling back before it can break above the 60-day moving average.
Key data to watch during the day includes the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 9 and the US April Retail Sales month-over-month figure. Overall market expectations lean towards being supportive for gold prices. Therefore, gold's price action heading into the week's end is still expected to be dominated by volatility and range-bound trading, with opportunities for both bulls and bears.
This week, driven by rising energy and service prices, the US April PPI's month-over-month and year-over-year growth rates both hit four-year highs. Comments from Federal Reserve official Collins, suggesting potential rate hikes if inflation does not ease, have kept gold in a state of sideways consolidation with lackluster momentum.
In contrast, silver, leveraging its prominent industrial attributes, is gradually decoupling from its traditional dependence on gold's price movements. Its conventional role as a monetary asset is being overshadowed by strong momentum driven by industrial demand. Technically, silver is also showing signs of strengthening, with overall expectations pointing towards a potential retest or even a breakthrough of its historical highs.
Therefore, compared to gold, which remains in a consolidation phase, as long as silver maintains its upward trajectory, it can still serve as a leading indicator for gold, suggesting that gold retains the potential to reach new highs.
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart, gold closed April below the 5-month moving average, indicating strengthening bearish forces and a bias towards a choppy decline in the near term. The key support level to watch remains the rising trendline. As long as the price holds above this level, the bull market outlook remains intact. A monthly close above the 5-month moving average at $4800 would significantly strengthen the bullish case, potentially targeting $5200. Conversely, a break below the support trendline would suggest a continuation of the weak, choppy decline or even signal the end of the bull market.
On the weekly chart, gold has been oscillating within the range defined by the middle Bollinger Band and the 30-week moving average, with a slightly weakening momentum bias. Bulls need to break above the resistance of the middle Bollinger Band to gather further momentum for a new high. Conversely, a break below the support of the 30-week moving average could lead to a continued corrective decline towards the $4300 or $4000 levels.
On the daily chart, gold is currently in a range-bound consolidation phase with defined resistance above and support below. The key focus remains on whether it can break above the resistance of the 60-day moving average to initiate a follow-through move towards $4900 and above. On the downside, continued attention should be paid to the support levels of the 144-day and 200-day moving averages for potential staged bullish opportunities. For intraday trading, continue to monitor signals from shorter timeframes like the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are provided below. Specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4670 or $4640; Resistance levels are around $4720 or $4750. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $86.00 or $85.20; Resistance levels are around $88.60 or $90.10.
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