In the futures market, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance led to volatile and weaker U.S. stock performance, with overnight LME tin closing down 0.73%. The latest settlement price stood at $48,745 per ton, a decrease of $360, while trading volume reached 815 lots and open interest totaled 209.68 million lots. Domestically, Shanghai tin futures traded weakly during the night session, closing at 380,470 yuan per ton, down 3,720 yuan, or 0.97%.
On April 29, tin inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased by 20 tons to 8,630 tons compared to the previous trading day.
According to Changjiang Nonferrous Metals News, Shanghai tin futures opened higher today, with the main June 2606 contract starting at 385,510 yuan per ton, up 1,320 yuan. By 9:10 AM, the contract was trading at 381,750 yuan per ton, down 2,440 yuan, or 0.64%. The market opened lower and continued to trend downward, maintaining weak and volatile trading.
Macroeconomic factors played a significant role, as the Federal Reserve's early morning policy decision became the primary catalyst for the sharp decline in LME tin. The meeting revealed an unusually high number of dissenting votes, the most in over three decades, highlighting severe internal policy disagreements within the Fed. This shattered earlier market expectations for monetary easing, pushing back forecasts for interest rate cuts and even reviving concerns about potential rate hikes. As a result, the U.S. dollar strengthened, long-term Treasury yields rose significantly, and global risk assets faced collective pressure. Base metals on the LME closed lower across the board, with tin extending its losses. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further fueled risk aversion, prompting accelerated capital outflows from the nonferrous metals sector.
On the supply and demand front, the industry faces a temporary stalemate. While there has been minor replenishment of raw materials, production resumption in Myanmar's main mining areas remains far below market expectations due to persistent shortages of diesel and explosives, limiting actual supply growth. Demand is even weaker, with traditional tin solder manufacturers operating at low capacity utilization rates. The consumer electronics sector continues to experience sluggish demand, and slower-than-expected growth in solar installations has further dampened tin consumption. Only the new energy vehicle sector contributed modest incremental demand. Currently, both upstream and downstream participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in thin spot market transactions and a lack of clear demand drivers.
Looking ahead, tin prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with market attention focused on the spillover effects of the Fed's policy divergence and cost support from surging international oil prices. As the last trading day before the Labor Day holiday, today's session will likely see prices continue to follow macroeconomic cues, though downside may be limited by rising crude oil costs. As prices decline, destocking in the spot market is expected to accelerate. Investors are advised to manage positions carefully ahead of the holiday to avoid short-term volatility risks, while closely monitoring post-holiday domestic demand recovery and crude oil price trends for clearer signals on future positioning.
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