This latest reduction in refined oil retail price caps has been confirmed, meaning a private car owner filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan. The domestic fuel price adjustment window opened at midnight on August 14th. According to an official notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, international crude oil prices experienced a rapid decline followed by volatile trading since the last domestic price adjustment on July 31st. The average price over the 10 working days before this adjustment was lower than the average during the previous period. Reflecting the changes in international oil markets, starting from midnight on August 14th, the domestic prices for gasoline and diesel (standard products) will be cut by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per tonne, respectively.
Converted to per-liter prices, the national average decrease for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-diesel is 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively. Calculations show that with this confirmed reduction in retail price caps, a private car filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan. This marks the fifth price cut for fuel this year.
During this latest fuel price adjustment cycle, tensions between the US and Iran have repeatedly flared up. Xu Lei, a refined oil analyst at Sublime China Information, noted that optimism over a potential agreement between the US and Iran to reopen a key waterway led to a decline in crude oil futures. However, doubts later emerged about the prospects of a peaceful deal, reigniting concerns over a potential disruption to Middle East supply and pushing oil prices higher. Prices then fell again late in the session due to the bearish factor of a significant build in US crude oil inventories.
Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, told reporters that on the supply side, the issue of Middle East crude oil supply has not been fully resolved, and the global oil market remains in a state of supply being less than demand. "The situation between the US and Iran has temporarily eased, but navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet resumed, and the Houthi military blockade of Saudi Arabia continues, keeping supply pressure on," she said.
"Overall, the improvement in demand remains slow," Liu added. She noted that the International Energy Agency has recently lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth, while refinery run rates in several Asian countries remain at low levels. The only current positive factor is the continuation of the traditional US summer driving season, with seasonal factors providing support for regional demand.
The next window for adjusting domestic refined oil retail prices will open at midnight on August 28th. Looking ahead, Liu predicted a higher probability of an upward price adjustment in the next round. "The US-Iran relationship remains uncertain, supply risks are not completely eliminated, and the market is still worried about the possibility of further escalation in the geopolitical situation," she concluded.
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