By 2036, emerging markets are projected to add more than one billion new consumers, contributing to a 32% increase in the global consumer base. In contrast, developed economies are expected to add only 28 million new consumers. According to a recent report titled "Beyond Borders 2026" by global payment platform EBANX, younger populations in emerging markets are set to lead digital consumption over the next ten years.
Online payment behaviors vary significantly across emerging markets, displaying a highly fragmented landscape. Instant payments and mobile payments have become the dominant methods, whereas credit card adoption remains considerably lower compared to developed nations. João Del Valle, Co-founder and Global CEO of EBANX, emphasized that cross-border businesses aiming to capture this "next billion" consumer segment must move beyond reliance on international credit card networks and instead develop localized payment systems aligned with regional preferences.
Emerging markets are poised to become the primary drivers of future digital consumption. The report indicates that by 2036, these markets will contribute over one billion new consumers, boosting the global consumer base by 32%—far surpassing the modest 3% growth expected in developed economies.
Specifically, consumer numbers in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and India are projected to grow by 70% and 52%, respectively, with consumer spending expected to surge by 122% and 147%, significantly outpacing the 49% growth in Europe and the United States. Countries such as India (62%), the Philippines (55%), Kenya (52%), Indonesia (42%), Nigeria (40%), and Egypt (36%) are anticipated to exceed the average emerging market growth rate of 32%, making them key regions for cross-border payment providers.
In recent years, several cross-border payment companies, including Ant International, PingPong, Airwallex, and PayerMax, have actively pursued payment licenses in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. In 2025, EBANX obtained a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and launched operations in the Philippines. Earlier this year, the company established its Asia-Pacific headquarters in Singapore and appointed a regional CEO.
João Del Valle stated, "The accelerating consumer growth in emerging markets is a key reason behind our decision to upgrade Singapore from a global settlement hub to our Asia-Pacific headquarters. This regional base will serve as a strategic pivot for EBANX to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on three core areas: driving merchant growth, integrating more localized payment methods to enhance payment capabilities, and deepening collaborations with fintech ecosystem partners."
The report also highlights that digital consumption in emerging markets is rapidly expanding, driven primarily by middle- and low-income groups. In countries such as Vietnam, India, Nigeria, Kenya, Peru, and Brazil, these segments have become the core contributors to online spending. In Vietnam, the middle class accounts for 86% of online consumption, while in India, middle-income groups contribute 72% of digital spending, covering nearly 700 million people. Additionally, younger consumers under the age of 30 in countries like Nigeria, Kenya, and the Philippines are leading spending in high-growth sectors such as gaming, streaming, and online education.
João Del Valle analyzed that the rapid expansion of consumer bases in emerging markets is influenced by three main factors: sustained economic growth leading to increased wealth and purchasing power, widespread smartphone adoption enabling access to e-commerce, and the rapid rise of mobile payments, e-wallets, and instant payment systems making transactions more convenient. These factors have helped elevate daily consumer spending above $13, qualifying more individuals as "consumers" in research classifications.
Instant and mobile payments have become the primary payment methods in emerging markets. Younger demographics are not only shaping digital consumption over the next decade but are also driving profound changes in payment experiences. Unlike developed economies, where credit card penetration reaches 91%, adoption remains low in emerging markets. For instance, credit card ownership among adults in Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Malaysia, South Africa, Egypt, India, and Indonesia is only 44%, 30%, 13%, 13%, 10%, 6%, 6%, and 6%, respectively. As a result, consumers in these regions have largely skipped credit cards, transitioning directly from cash to e-wallets, account-to-account (A2A) transfers, and instant mobile payments.
The report notes significant variations in online payment behaviors across emerging markets, reflecting a fragmented ecosystem. In the Philippines, digital wallets are most prevalent; in Kenya, mobile money dominates; in Brazil, the Pix instant payment system coexists with cards, vouchers, and local wallets; and in India, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) leads the digital payment landscape.
João Del Valle anticipates that payment industry development in emerging markets will follow a mobile-first approach, with increasingly sophisticated and localized payment ecosystems. To succeed in these regions, global players in e-commerce, mobility services, gaming, and streaming must build payment systems tailored to local habits, enabling stronger revenue growth.
He noted that Chinese companies expanding overseas—from early players like Alibaba to current leaders such as SHEIN, Temu, BYD, DiDi, and Meituan—have continued to grow in markets like Latin America, often dominating their respective categories in Brazil and Mexico. These companies utilize diverse payment methods, including credit cards and digital options like Pix. EBANX plans to collaborate with more Chinese SaaS, mobility, streaming, and gaming companies to support their global expansion.
Additionally, with the rise of Agentic AI, consumers are gradually shifting from active searching to AI-assisted transactions. Survey data shows that about 10% of consumers already use AI to initiate online shopping, while 20% express willingness to let AI make purchases on their behalf. João Del Valle highlighted that AI-driven automated transactions represent another key trend shaping the future of payments in emerging markets.
He revealed that the growing adoption of AI-driven automation is also transforming cross-border payment settlement processes. For instance, in e-commerce transaction processing and fund settlement, payment providers must leverage AI to identify the most efficient and cost-effective payment routes. In bank reconciliation, AI-powered payment systems need to automatically generate transaction documents to facilitate anti-money laundering reviews and other compliance checks.
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