On June 9th, Bitcoin held above $63,000 following a weekend rebound. RYOEX indicated that short-term market pressure has eased somewhat, but a complete reversal still has some distance to cover. It was noted that the price is currently near the critical 200-week moving average zone, a level historically viewed as a significant dividing line during cycle transitions.
From a derivatives market structure perspective, RYOEX believes the recent rapid decline in futures open interest suggests that a large portion of the previously high-leverage long positions have been liquidated. This helps to reduce the risk of further cascading sell-offs. Simultaneously, the retreat in implied volatility from elevated levels also reflects that the market's most tense phase is passing.
However, structural repair and trend re-establishment are not the same. Even as forced liquidation pressure diminishes, if macro data, ETF fund flows, and spot market demand do not show significant improvement, the price could still experience repeated tug-of-war near key support levels.
Consequently, RYOEX assesses that Bitcoin currently appears to be entering a phase of observing the quality of its recovery. In the coming days, focus should be placed on demand near the 200-week moving average, whether the decline in volatility persists, and whether derivatives positioning returns to a more balanced state.
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