Analysis of the latest gold market trends: On February 4th, a breakdown of gold's fundamental drivers: During Wednesday's (February 4th) early Asian trading session, spot gold experienced a narrow-range fluctuation with an upward bias, currently trading around $5,025 per ounce. On Tuesday (February 3rd), the spot gold price surged dramatically by over 6%, marking its most significant single-day gain since November 2008. This movement was not merely a technical correction but a collective market response to robust underlying fundamentals. Although gold had touched a record high of $5,596.33 per ounce last week, a sharp decline over the subsequent two trading sessions initially plunged investors into a state of panic. However, fueled by an influx of bargain-hunting buyers, the price rebounded powerfully from Monday's low of $4,401.24 to $4,945 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery also closed 6.1% higher, settling at $4,935 per ounce. This rebound not only buoyed the precious metals sector but also saw silver prices leap by 7.5% to $85.01 per ounce, putting an end to the downtrend that included Friday's 27% plunge and Monday's 6% drop. Analysts widely view this surge as signaling the return of gold's long-term bull market, driven by factors including expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions, and subtle shifts in the U.S. dollar's trajectory.
Gold technical analysis: Following a three-day plunge of $1,100, the current rebound has reached a 50% retracement. The $4,950-$5,000 zone represents a core resistance area and a critical dividing line between bullish and bearish forces: a firm hold above $5,000 suggests further short-term rebound potential, whereas a failure to break through effectively will likely trigger a secondary test, with significant downside risks remaining. Silver has mirrored this extreme volatility, plummeting $50 over three days; physical long positions established at the high of $121 are likely to be difficult to recover in the long term, further underscoring the market's controlled nature, which cannot be predicted by ordinary technical analysis. The primary technical resistance zone for the current rebound has now shifted upward to the $5,000 mark, which acts both as channel upper-bound resistance and the first key retest area following the initial breakdown, indicating significant technical pressure. On the daily chart, after a dip and rebound, the downward momentum has somewhat eased; short-term focus is on the resistance band around $4,980. On the 4-hour chart, following a period of continuous low-level consolidation, the technical structure is gradually repairing itself. Short-term moving averages are beginning to hook upward and diverge, with price action slowly overcoming these averages, showing signs of a potential breakout above near-term resistance, suggesting the possibility of continued rebound momentum in today's session. The hourly chart shows a small V-shaped reversal pattern; currently, price action is maintaining a slightly stronger,震荡偏强 posture along the short-term moving averages. The 4-hour chart indicates gradual stabilization after the consecutive rebounds, with the downward trend slowing; attention turns to whether the rebound can extend during the late session. Minor timeframes show some degree of divergence, hinting at potential for further short-term adjustment, though the intensity is likely limited. Overall, for today's gold trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $5,100-$5,150 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the $4,980-$4,930 area.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends: Crude oil fundamental drivers breakdown: During Wednesday's (Beijing time, February 4th) early Asian trading session, U.S. crude oil was trading around $63.78 per barrel. Oil prices rebounded by over 2% on Tuesday, propelled by escalating international geopolitical risks. Driven by heightened international geopolitical tensions, oil prices staged a significant rebound on Tuesday. Previously, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone approaching its aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, while reports emerged of Iranian fast-attack craft nearing a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. These incidents amplified market concerns that U.S.-Iran tensions could disrupt ongoing diplomatic dialogue. At the close, Brent crude futures rose 1.6%, settling at $67.33 per barrel; U.S. crude futures gained 2.52%, settling at $64.21 per barrel. This increase partially recovered the more than 4% loss incurred on Monday, which was triggered by former President Trump's comments about "serious talks" between the U.S. and Iran.
Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices ended their consecutive positive closing pattern, with the K-line forming a large bearish candlestick. The moving average system still supports the price with a bullish alignment, maintaining an unchanged medium-term objective uptrend outlook. The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, with bullish momentum dominant, suggesting a continued upward rhythm for oil's medium-term trend. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the price has continuously declined to new lows, with the moving averages in a bearish排列 arrangement, indicating a downward short-term objective trend. During the early session, prices touched a low of $61.40, forming a secondary consolidation pattern; based on the principle of主次交替, the intraday trend is expected to continue its downward movement. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $65.0-$66.0 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the $62.5-$61.5 area.
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