Looking back at the "annual report" for 2025, what is noteworthy is not the brilliance of any single indicator, but the improvement in the growth structure and development logic: the contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to economic growth for the full year were 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7%, respectively. Crucially, consumption contributed over half, with service consumption and digital consumption accelerating their expansion; investment shed the old and established the new amidst real estate adjustments, elevating capital quality through equipment upgrades and high-tech investments; foreign trade stabilized its scale and optimized its structure amid uncertainty, with high-tech exports and market diversification enhancing resilience; key variables such as prices, expectations, and profits showed marginal improvements, providing a smoother macroeconomic environment for the start of 2026. This reveals that China's economic advantage is transforming from a "static advantage" of scale and size into a "dynamic advantage" derived from institutional coordination, industrial upgrading, and market integration.
First, consumption's role as the "main engine" is returning, reflecting the internal demand logic shifting from scale expansion to structural upgrading. The stabilizing function of the mega-sized market became more apparent. Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50,120.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. By location of business units, retail sales in urban areas were 43,297.2 billion yuan, up 3.6%; retail sales in rural areas were 6,823.0 billion yuan, up 4.1%, indicating joint efforts from both county/township and urban markets. More importantly, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52.0%, further rising to 52.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating that domestic demand is assuming a more stable and sustainable growth responsibility against the backdrop of fluctuating external demand and divergent investment trends.
Second, the expansion and quality improvement of service consumption drove the optimization of the consumption structure, marking a new phase in demand-side upgrading where "goods and services are equally emphasized." Service retail sales grew by 5.5% for the full year 2025, faster than the growth of goods retail sales. The per capita service consumption expenditure accounted for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure, flat compared to 2024 but with stronger qualitative substance. The internal structure of the service sector also exhibited a pattern of "modern services leading the way": value-added of information transmission, software, and information technology services grew by 11.1%; leasing and business services grew by 10.3%; transport, storage, and postal services grew by 5.2%; wholesale and retail trade grew by 5.0%; and accommodation and catering services grew by 4.9%. In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with the sub-index for information transmission, software, and IT services surging 14.8%, leasing and business services up 11.3%, and the financial sector growing 6.5%. The business activity expectation index for the service sector reached 56.4%, with sectors like telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, and capital market services maintaining business activity indices above 60%, indicating a positive feedback loop between the expansion of service supply and improving expectations.
Third, consumption upgrading resonated with policy tools, transforming "replacement of existing stock" into tangible incremental gains from "quality upgrades." Retail sales of communication equipment by units above the designated size increased by 20.9%, cultural and office用品 supplies by 17.3%, sports and entertainment用品 by 15.7%, household appliances and audio-video equipment by 11.0%, and grain, oil, and foodstuff by 9.3%. The simultaneous strength in basic living goods and some upgraded categories reflects synchronized improvement in the stratified consumption structure. Concurrently, online retail sales for the full year reached 15,972.2 billion yuan, growing 8.6%. Within this, online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 13,092.3 billion yuan, up 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales of consumer goods, indicating that digital channels continue to enhance accessibility and matching efficiency, providing new infrastructure for stable consumption growth.
Fourth, income growth and price stabilization jointly reinforced the sustainability of consumption, providing a more "affordable" micro-foundation for the expansion of domestic demand. The national per capita disposable income in 2025 was 43,377 yuan, with both nominal and real growth rates at 5.0%. The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 56,502 yuan, with real growth of 4.2%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 24,456 yuan, with real growth of 6.0%. The faster growth in rural areas reflects structural improvements under the guidance of common prosperity. On the price front, the full-year CPI (Consumer Price Index) for 2025 was flat compared to 2024, but the core CPI rose by 0.7%, expanding by 0.2 percentage points from 2024. In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. The PPI (Producer Price Index) for the full year fell by 2.6%, but the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Purchase prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in December. This set of price signals, characterized by "moderate overall levels, a recovering core, and marginal improvement," helps stabilize corporate profit expectations and household consumption expectations, creating a smoother macroeconomic environment for further release of domestic demand in 2026.
First, the phased pressure on total investment does not equate to weakening momentum; the key lies in the concentration of investment structure towards "manufacturing upgrading, equipment renewal, and technology services." Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in 2025 was 48,518.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment fell by only 0.5%, indicating that the investment slowdown primarily stemmed from the drag of real estate adjustment rather than a comprehensive contraction of the real economy. By sector, infrastructure investment fell by 2.2%, manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, and real estate development investment plummeted by 17.2%. The floor space of newly built commercial housing sold was 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7%, with sales value at 8,393.7 billion yuan, down 12.6%, suggesting that the real estate sector is still in a phase of clearing and restructuring, while the growth in manufacturing investment indicates the persistence of a "long-termism" approach in the real sector.
Second, policies promoting "the new" drove equipment renewal as a highlight of investment, pushing the supply system towards high-end, intelligent, and green iterations. In 2025, investment in equipment, tools, and器具 purchases grew by 11.8%, and its share of total investment increased to 18.0%, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024, reflecting a trend of investment shifting from "expanding the摊子" to "improving efficiency." The theoretical implication is that equipment renewal is not just a short-term tool to bolster demand but also a medium-to-long-term lever for upgrading the production function. It can drive a leap forward for the entire industrial chain by improving capital quality and total factor productivity.
Third, the structural upswing in high-tech investment provides sustainable capital supply for new quality productive forces. Within high-tech industries, investment in information services grew by 28.4%, and investment in aerospace equipment manufacturing grew by 16.9%. Meanwhile, investment in high-tech services grew by 3.5%, with its share of total service investment rising to 5.6%. This signifies that innovation activities are transitioning from "single-point breakthroughs" to "systematic investment," extending from the "R&D end" to the "industrial end" and "service end," providing capital support for the diffusion of innovation, industrial organization upgrades, and the implementation of application scenarios.
Fourth, the deeper significance of investment is returning to the development logic of "combining investment in physical assets with investment in human capital," fostering stronger supply-side and demand-side creativity for the new stage. In 2025, the average years of education for the population aged 16-59 reached 11.3 years, an increase of 0.1 years from the previous year. Concurrently, demographic changes became more pronounced, with the population aged 60 and above accounting for 23.0%, and those aged 65 and above reaching 15.9%. This highlights that investment decisions must place greater emphasis on the synergy between public services, health and elderly care, age-appropriate renovations, and human capital enhancement. From this perspective, investment is not merely about quantitative expansion but about improving supply efficiency through "hard investment" and enhancing human capabilities and expectations through "soft investment," ultimately achieving synergistic efforts between domestic demand expansion and industrial upgrading.
First, foreign trade achieved stable growth in a complex external environment, reflecting the comprehensive advantages of a complete industrial system and strong supply capacity. The total value of goods imports and exports in 2025 was 45,468.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26,989.2 billion yuan, up 6.1%; imports were 18,479.5 billion yuan, up 0.5%. For December alone, the total import-export value was 4,263.0 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Exports were 2,535.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%; imports were 1,727.1 billion yuan, up 4.4%, indicating maintained momentum towards year-end. For a super-large economy, this performance of "stable growth, unbroken chains, and maintained market share" essentially reflects the combined effect of supply-side resilience and the vitality of trade entities.
Second, the optimization of trade entities and market structure enhanced the ability of foreign trade to hedge risks. Imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 7.1%, and their share of the total import-export value rose to 57.3%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous year, solidifying the "main force" role of market-oriented entities in stabilizing foreign trade. Imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew by 6.3%, with their share rising to 51.9%, indicating that market diversification is transitioning from a strategic choice to practical support, thereby reducing sensitivity to fluctuations in any single market.
Third, the rapid growth of high-tech product exports is pushing foreign trade from scale expansion towards structural upgrading. Exports of high-tech products grew by 13.2%, creating a significant "upward pull" against the backdrop of overall export growth of 6.1%. This means that China's competitive advantage in foreign trade is further shifting from factor costs and scale efficiency towards technological content, industrial supporting capacity, and delivery capability, with the positive coupling between foreign trade structure and industrial structure continuously strengthening.
Fourth, the rising contribution of net exports has阶段性合理性, but more importantly, it reflects the underlying industrial competitiveness and global cooperation space. The contribution of net exports of goods and services to economic growth in 2025 was 32.7%. In the context of weak global growth momentum and intensified geopolitical disruptions, this contribution does not stem solely from "stronger external demand" but rather originates more from the comparative advantages of the supply system and the formation of a diversified pattern of trading partners. The enhanced resilience of foreign trade essentially provides stable supply to the world amidst global uncertainties and lays the foundation for China to expand high-level opening-up and shape a more resilient international circulation.
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