Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, released an analysis of September 2026 trends across automotive market segments and competition among manufacturers, according to a report.
The most striking feature of the September auto market was the divergence between domestic and overseas demand, with sluggish domestic consumption and surging exports. The traditional "Golden September" peak season fell far short of expectations, as domestic demand stayed weak. In prior years, "Golden September" brought broad-based growth with both first-time purchases and trade-ins rising together, but this year has seen a zero-sum reshuffling within existing demand, along with a continued sharp contraction in fuel vehicle demand.
September became an exceptionally weak month for retail car sales in this cycle. This resulted from multiple overlapping factors: first, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was moved earlier to late September, and sales weakened noticeably during the holiday week; second, some provinces ended subsidy programs in September of last year, triggering a rush to capture subsidies and creating a high comparison base; third, persistently high oil prices continued to weigh on fuel vehicle consumption, with gasoline prices cumulatively raised by 2,375 yuan per ton since late September, pushing fuel vehicle purchase willingness ever lower, while the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles climbed to a high of 67%, accelerating the substitution of electric vehicles for gasoline ones; and fourth, AI-driven surges in memory and chip prices along with tight supply caused the pace of new energy product launches to slow recently. This was the result of multiple factors acting together.
2026 Automotive Market Remains Broadly Stable
In September 2026, total vehicle sales reached 2.95 million units, down 8% year-on-year; for January to September 2026, total vehicle sales came to 23.25 million units, a cumulative decline of 4%. The truck and bus markets were relatively strong in 2026, while the passenger car market performed somewhat weaker. Combined with strong exports and weak domestic demand, overall manufacturer sales trends were relatively stable.
The performance of major automotive groups diverged sharply in 2026. Byd Company Limited and other companies recovered rapidly, with Byd Company Limited climbing back to first place; SAIC Motor faced enormous pressure; and Geely, Chery and others generally maintained strong momentum.
Exports as a Share of Total Sales
China's auto exports have exploded in growth in recent years, reaching 36% of total volumes in September 2026, up sharply from 21% in 2025, becoming a key component supporting the growth of China's automotive scale.
Leading Automaker Groups Show Sharp Divergence
Compared with the 2021 chart above, some automakers posted strong performances in 2022, with industry growth diverging sharply. The pandemic at the start of 2022 put traditional automakers under heavy pressure, especially with the new energy shock compounded by the pandemic's impact. State-owned major groups diverged, with GAC and Chery performing excellently, and Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments both performing very well. Northern companies such as FAW, Great Wall and BAIC all faced pressure.
In early 2023, new energy vehicles drove divergence in the auto market. The three major central state-owned enterprises diverged overall, and some state-owned companies fell behind. New energy companies such as Byd Company Limited performed very well; Chery and Tesla were relatively strong this year. Second-tier automakers diverged, as the transition between old and new growth drivers and persistent losses in new energy vehicles caused severe divergence and weakness among small and medium-sized independent brands.
In 2024, the lineup and landscape of automotive groups changed comprehensively. Byd Company Limited cut prices on new products to boost volumes, and thanks to booming passenger car sales demand and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely and Dongfeng performed very well, while SAIC Motor remained in sharp decline. Growth diverged between new energy players Byd Company Limited and Tesla. The manufacturer landscape in the auto market changed dramatically, with the industry showing sharp divergence in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises as the industry's main force, with Geely, Byd Company Limited, Chery and Great Wall maintaining relatively high growth.
In 2026, leading in sales volume is the key focus of struggle for state-owned enterprises. Although the market is severely sluggish, Byd Company Limited returned to first place. SAIC Motor, Geely, Chery and BAIC performed relatively strongly in January-September this year, with improved growth. Great Wall and Tesla generally performed excellently. In 2026, the manufacturer landscape was relatively stable, with the independent position rising substantially. Manufacturer sales in September were generally good, but weak retail market conditions dragged on passenger car manufacturer performance. Some manufacturers such as Dongfeng showed very strong month-on-month trends versus August, while Byd Company Limited and others strengthened year-on-year. Strong independent export-oriented companies performed excellently, while groups with joint ventures faced enormous pressure.
Narrowly Defined Passenger Car Enterprise Production and Sales Trends
In September 2026, total narrowly defined passenger car sales reached 2.55 million units, down 9% year-on-year; for January to September 2026, total narrowly defined passenger car sales came to 19.72 million units, down 5% year-on-year. In recent years, new energy vehicle technology innovation and continuously growing new product competitiveness have contrasted with weak launches of new fuel vehicle products. At the start of 2026, new energy vehicles were in a adjustment period, dealer confidence was insufficient, and high oil prices suppressed growth. In 2026, independent passenger car manufacturers led across the board.
In September, major automakers were generally weak, with independents extremely strong. Due to high oil prices, joint venture automakers were relatively weak in September. Byd Company Limited led, Geely Automobile ranked second, and Chery Automobile held third place in September, with the top three increasingly close in scale. Joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen performed relatively weakly. The lineup of major passenger car manufacturers diverged rapidly, with export-oriented companies and new energy-focused manufacturers performing strongly, and divergence among joint ventures particularly pronounced, with FAW-Volkswagen relatively strong.
New Energy Passenger Car Enterprise Production and Sales Trends
In September 2026, total new energy passenger car manufacturer sales reached 1.67 million units, up 12% year-on-year; for January to September 2026, total new energy passenger car manufacturer sales came to 11.43 million units, up 10% year-on-year. At the start of 2026, pressure from scrappage and renewal subsidies was heavy, oil prices surged, consumption was sluggish, and new energy vehicle demand was weak, leaving the domestic new energy trend in 2026 facing considerable downward pressure from weak demand. In 2026, Byd Company Limited maintained first place, but plug-in hybrid growth faced relatively heavy pressure. Chery, Leapmotor and others saw relatively strong new energy growth.
Traditional Powertrain Passenger Car Enterprise Production and Sales Trends
In 2025, traditional fuel narrowly defined passenger car sales totaled 14.22 million units, down 5% year-on-year, and in January-September 2026 they totaled 8.29 million units, down 20%. With oil prices elevated, the domestic fuel vehicle market trend remained persistently weak in 2026. Thanks to export support, overall fuel vehicle performance diverged in 2026, with independents performing extremely strongly while major joint venture automakers rapidly weakened in the short term. Domestic fuel vehicle performance in 2026 was severely sluggish overall, with three consecutive months in the third quarter falling more than 40%, putting heavy pressure on the market.
Bus Enterprise Production and Sales Category Trends
In full-year 2025, cumulative bus sales totaled 920,000 units, with cumulative growth of 15%; in January-September 2026, cumulative bus sales came to 560,000 units, down 4% year-on-year, with exports and new energy logistics vehicles providing only a modest boost. After the year-end sprint in 2025, the bus trend gradually strengthened in 2026, with SAIC-GM-Wuling performing very strongly and leading manufacturers such as SAIC Maxus generally posting relatively strong sales in recent months. Demand in the logistics light bus and microvan market fluctuated considerably, with exports contributing enormously. In 2026, Jiangling Motors and SAIC Maxus showed relatively good commercial vehicle trends, and in September logistics vehicle companies such as Wuling, Changan and Jiangling rebounded considerably month-on-month.
Truck Enterprise Production and Sales Category Trends
In 2025, truck sales totaled 3.72 million units, with cumulative growth of 11%; in January-September 2026, truck sales came to 2.56 million units, up 7% year-on-year, creating a divergence between consumption and production, with consumption plunging while production grew extremely strongly. In 2026, major truck manufacturers diverged noticeably, with leading truck manufacturers performing relatively strongly. Automakers such as Maxus and Great Wall saw sales surge versus September last year, while Shaanxi Auto and others performed relatively poorly. Commercial vehicle subsidies had a prominent effect, with heavy trucks surging in 2026 and pure electric heavy trucks performing very strongly. Sinotruk, FAW, Shaanxi Auto and others saw relatively strong growth, and the industry landscape remained relatively stable.
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