The recent days have seen Cxmt Corporation (SH688825), China's leading DRAM manufacturer, become the focal point in the global capital markets for the memory chip sector.
On July 16th, Cxmt Corporation initiated its share subscription on the STAR Market, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, the total funds raised are expected to reach approximately 666 billion yuan, making it the largest IPO in the A-share market this year. Based on projections from multiple institutions, the company's post-listing market capitalization is estimated to be between 2 trillion and 3 trillion yuan.
According to disclosures, the preliminary online subscription success rate was 0.40995452%. Following the activation of the clawback mechanism, the final online success rate was 0.47141739%. On social media platforms, many have already shared notifications of their successful subscriptions.
The IPO as a New Starting Point
The IPO listing is merely a new beginning for Cxmt Corporation. According to its prospectus, the company originally planned to raise 29.5 billion yuan, which will be entirely allocated to its core DRAM business. Analysis by Citrini Research indicates that if existing projects proceed as scheduled, Cxmt Corporation is expected to achieve a monthly DRAM wafer production capacity of approximately 350,000 units by the end of 2026, approaching the scale of Micron, one of the world's top three memory manufacturers.
On July 17th, Huang Huayan, founder of Beijing Daoxingye Investment, stated in an interview that the listing of Cxmt Corporation is expected to reshape the global DRAM competitive landscape, break the overseas pricing dominance, and simultaneously accelerate the domestic production of the entire storage industry chain in China. MS Hwang, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, told the reporter directly, "The next few years will be a critical stage determining the long-term competitiveness of China's DRAM industry."
On July 16th, news also emerged that the IPO process for Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd., the other star of China's domestic memory "twin stars," is accelerating. How will the localization of mid-to-high-end memory chips evolve in the coming years, and when might we expect to catch up with Korean giants like Samsung and SK hynix?
Potential Reshaping of Global Competition
The bell for Cxmt Corporation's IPO rang at a dramatic moment in the global memory market. On one side, domestic investors enthusiastically participated in the new share subscription; on the other, overseas memory chip stocks experienced severe volatility and a collective price correction.
Data disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the evening of July 16th showed that the number of valid online subscriptions for Cxmt Corporation's IPO that day reached 9.4288 million, with a final online success rate of about 0.47%, both setting new records for the STAR Market. However, overseas chip stocks plummeted collectively due to multiple negative signals. On the morning of July 16th, South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 4.4%, with memory chip stocks broadly declining. That evening in the US, semiconductor, memory, and optical communication concept stocks also suffered heavy losses, with SanDisk falling over 9% at one point and SK hynix ADRs dropping more than 8%.
Relevant analysis suggests the volatility in overseas memory stocks is primarily due to "profit-taking" following significant gains. However, Morgan Stanley recently offered another perspective when downgrading the investment ratings of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, mentioning that the massive fundraising and capacity expansion for DRAM by Chinese memory manufacturer (Cxmt Corporation), coupled with the accelerated ramp-up of Yangtze Memory's Phase III production line, are releasing capacity at a pace far exceeding previous market consensus. This domestic capacity expansion will weaken the long-term supply dominance of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, introducing persistent uncertainty into global memory pricing and profit cycles.
Huang Huayan analyzed that the significance and impact of Cxmt Corporation's listing on China's domestic memory chip industry are mainly reflected in: reshaping the global DRAM competitive landscape and breaking overseas pricing hegemony; driving the acceleration of domestic production across the entire storage industry chain; perfecting the "dual-leader" ecosystem in domestic memory; accelerating breakthroughs in high-end storage technology domestically; and setting a benchmark for hard technology in the capital markets, attracting massive social capital into the storage and semiconductor manufacturing sectors, thereby improving the domestic storage industry's investment and financing ecosystem.
From a performance perspective, Cxmt Corporation's IPO timing aligns with the AI-driven "super cycle." The prospectus shows the company faced losses between 2023 and 2025. However, entering 2026, the company's performance saw substantial growth. In Q1 2026, Cxmt Corporation's net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1688.3%. The company also forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2026 to reach between 50 billion and 57 billion yuan.
"Chinese memory manufacturers will be the biggest beneficiaries of this memory upcycle," said MS Hwang, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, in an interview on July 17th. He added that as global supply gradually increases and high prices begin to suppress demand growth, this industry upcycle is expected to stabilize around 2028. However, even when the industry enters a relatively stable phase, overall market revenue will remain significantly higher than in previous years, estimated to maintain a scale several times larger.
According to Omdia statistics, based on Q4 2025 sales, Cxmt Corporation's global DRAM market share has increased to 7.67%, solidifying its position as the fourth largest globally and the largest in China.
Imminent Leap in Mid-Range Localization
Huang Huayan told the reporter that the investment value of Cxmt Corporation lies in it being the only enterprise in China with complete IDM capabilities for large-scale mass production of DRAM, making it a core asset for semiconductor localization. "Investing in technology means investing in growth sectors. Currently, Cxmt Corporation possesses scarce, growth value with high barriers to entry."
Globally, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology occupy the vast majority of the DRAM market share. Among domestic manufacturers, Cxmt Corporation is gradually emerging. However, data from third-party institutions shows there is still a significant gap between Cxmt Corporation's market share and that of Micron. Wang Jing, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told the reporter that Cxmt Corporation is currently experiencing the fastest penetration growth in mobile (LPDDR5/5X), PC, and server (DDR5) segments, as well as in general-purpose DRAM overall.
Cxmt Corporation's prospectus similarly indicates that its LPDDR5, DDR5, and LPDDR5X products entered mass production in 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, with rapid increases in penetration in the mid-to-high-end market. An important background factor here is that amid the AI wave, the three major overseas manufacturers have shifted significant capacity towards high-margin HBM, proactively ceding the mid-range general-purpose DRAM market, which has allowed Cxmt Corporation to capture the largest share of benefits. The explosive growth in Cxmt Corporation's 2026 performance confirms this.
It is reported that at the IC China exhibition last November, Cxmt Corporation comprehensively showcased its latest products in the DDR5 and LPDDR5X lines for the first time. LPDDR5X 8533 and 9600 are already in mass production, 10667 products have been sampled, and product specifications have caught up with the world's first tier. The company is currently continuously transitioning DDR4 capacity to DDR5 and actively increasing production capacity.
"I believe the (localization) leap is inevitable, and a comprehensive leap in mid-range storage will be completed within 2 to 3 years," Huang Huayan stated in an interview. He believes that against the backdrop of overseas giants shifting significant capacity to high-margin HBM and proactively ceding the mid-range general-purpose DRAM market, domestic government enterprises, cloud providers, and consumer electronics brands will enforce localization for their inventory. It is estimated that by 2028, the domestic self-sufficiency rate for mid-range DRAM could increase from the current approximately 8% to 25%-30%.
MS Hwang similarly stated in an interview that the next few years will be a critical stage determining the long-term competitiveness of China's DRAM industry. "Affected by US equipment restrictions, Chinese DRAM manufacturers are currently largely limited to the 1a node in terms of 2D process upgrades. Therefore, whether breakthroughs can be achieved in new technology directions such as VCT, bonding technology, 3D DRAM, and HBM in the future will become the core challenge for industry development. Although the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs is extremely high, the current strength of China's DRAM industry is underestimated and possesses the potential for breakthroughs."
Remaining Gaps and Paths for Breakthrough
Although domestic memory manufacturers represented by Cxmt Corporation have achieved leapfrog development in global market share over the past few years, and the technology gap with the Korean giants is rapidly narrowing, there remains a noticeable gap in advanced process nodes, HBM, and other high-end product areas compared to international giants like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. The advantage of domestic memory lies in the consumer-grade mid-range market, while it is difficult to gain a share in the high-margin AI storage segment.
"At least before 2030, it will be very difficult for Chinese manufacturers to catch up with Korean giants in high-end DRAM or HBM fields," MS Hwang offered his judgment in an interview. He pointed out that Korean manufacturers are still continuously expanding HBM capacity and relying on its high profitability to increase R&D investment, a leading advantage expected to be sustained.
MS Hwang added, "However, the Chinese market itself is also an important variable. If Chinese DRAM manufacturers can produce products that meet domestic market demand in the future, rather than relying on imports, then the massive local market will form stable demand. This will significantly alter the entire industry's competitive landscape and help narrow the gap with international leading manufacturers."
Greater challenges come from technology roadmap transitions and external restrictions. Wang Jing pointed out that due to the lack of EUV lithography machines and being subject to equipment export controls, Cxmt Corporation lags behind the international advanced level by about two technology nodes. The unit capacity cost of its products is significantly higher than that of the three major manufacturers, and it faces difficulties in breaking through HBM yield rates.
MS Hwang emphasized that for Chinese memory manufacturers to achieve breakthroughs in high-end storage, they need to learn from past industry development experiences and focus on three key aspects. First, ensure there are no legal risks related to intellectual property. This is the foundation for participating in global competition, not just a requirement for operating in the Chinese market. Second, establish sufficient market scale to achieve the ability to support capital expenditures (CAPEX) with their own EBITDA. "We believe that a market share of about 15% is an important threshold for achieving this goal." Finally, true technological leadership often comes from innovation, not simply catching up. Whether it was South Korea's choice in the 1990s between stack and trench technology roadmaps, Samsung's 3D NAND, or Yangtze Memory's Xtacking architecture, breakthroughs were achieved by accelerating technological innovation, not merely pursuing short-term investment returns.
The listing of Cxmt Corporation is a coming-of-age ceremony for China's DRAM industry, the result of "ten years of grinding a sword," and also marks the true beginning of another protracted battle.
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