Market News and Key Data
Futures Market: On September 29, 2026, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 109,240 yuan per tonne and closed at 109,570 yuan per tonne, up 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. In last night's session, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 109,280 yuan per tonne and closed at 109,420 yuan per tonne, up 0.11% from yesterday's afternoon close.
Spot Market Conditions
According to SMM, yesterday the SMM 1# electrolytic copper spot premium against the Shanghai copper 2610 contract was 900-1,200 yuan per tonne, with an average of 1,050 yuan per tonne, down 90 yuan per tonne from the previous day. In early trading, the Shanghai copper 2610 contract dipped to 109,720 yuan per tonne before rebounding steadily, with the center of gravity continuously shifting higher, closing the morning session at 110,190 yuan per tonne. The inter-month Back spread was 610-700 yuan per tonne, while the current-month import profit/loss stood at a loss of 590-770 yuan per tonne. In the Shanghai region, the spot selling sentiment was 3.18 and the purchasing sentiment was 2.79, both edging up slightly from the previous period. In early trading, holders lowered their premium quotes over multiple rounds to facilitate shipments, with price spreads diverging across different brands and invoice types. With downstream pre-holiday stockpiling largely wrapped up, new purchasing has weakened, and the deepening inter-month Back structure is suppressing spot purchasing, increasing selling pressure on holders. Spot premiums are expected to continue declining slightly today, and trading activity may weaken further.
Key Information Summary
On the Federal Reserve front, Fed's Williams stated that another rate hike may be needed by the end of 2026; after the September hike, "there is no need to act hastily"; if the economy performs as expected, there may be one more rate hike this year; more data will help the Fed decide the next direction of interest rate policy; bringing inflation back to the 2% target is crucial. Fed policy can ensure that supply shocks do not persist long-term; US GDP is expected to grow 2.25% this year, with an unemployment rate of 4% in 2027; inflation is projected at 3.5% this year, reaching the 2% target by 2028. After Williams described policy action as "not urgent," traders reduced bets on a Fed rate hike in October, expecting only one more rate hike before year-end.
Mine Supply
According to foreign media reports on September 28, two unions at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile rejected the company's collective contract proposal on Monday, moving one step closer to a strike. Currently, the company and unions must enter a government-mediated five-day mandatory conciliation process, which can be extended by another five days with both parties' consent before a legal strike can proceed. 98.73% of union members voted in favor of a strike, with all eligible members participating in the vote. The Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions had previously called on members to reject the proposal, claiming that Antofagasta Minerals refused to discuss unified worker benefits regardless of which union workers belonged to. The Centinela copper mine produced 240,400 tonnes of copper in 2025.
Additionally, according to SHMET on September 28, the concentrator at Hami Dingxin Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Yandong copper mine project recently completed its feed commissioning task, with the entire production system running smoothly, equipment operating stably, and the full production line from raw material input to finished product output successfully connected. The success of this feed commissioning marks the full completion of equipment installation and system debugging at the Yandong copper mine concentrator, laying the foundation for formally entering trial production. It is understood that feed commissioning is a landmark milestone for mining projects transitioning from the engineering construction phase to full-process trial production, solidifying the foundation for stable trial production and the output of qualified copper concentrate products. Next, the Yandong copper mine project will advance equipment defect rectification, production process review and optimization, and other final preparations, striving for the project to commence formal production as soon as possible.
Smelting and Imports
Recently, Indian copper producers called on the government to reduce the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on copper products from 18% to 5%, stating that the current rate locks up over 490 billion rupees (approximately $5.11 billion) in working capital. The petition was submitted on September 22 by the Bharat Metal Exchange (BME) and copper producers Hindalco Industries, Vedanta Ltd, billionaire Gautam Adani's Kutch Copper Ltd, and Hindustan Copper to the GST Council chaired by the Federal Finance Minister. BME shared the letter with Reuters. The letter stated that the current 18% GST rate locks up critical working capital during an unusually long four-to-five-month processing and conversion cycle. India is the world's second-largest refined copper importer, with copper imports growing 4% to 1.2 million tonnes in fiscal year 2025. The government says India may need to import 91% to 97% of its copper concentrate by 2047. Demand is expected to climb to 3 million to 3.3 million tonnes by 2030 and 8.9 million to 9.8 million tonnes by 2047.
Consumption
On the consumption side, pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the dual festivals drove some downstream purchasing, with cable and copper rod enterprises restocking in phases leading to a sequential recovery in operating rates. However, after copper prices surpassed 110,000 yuan per tonne, downstream fear of high prices rapidly intensified, purchasing quickly returned to a needs-based mode, and no peak-season consumption surge emerged. The current low domestic inventory is more a result of restricted imported supply and cannot be equated with a comprehensive strengthening of end-use consumption. The power sector maintained resilience through rigid grid orders, and the new energy sector still has some demand support, but the home appliance industry is recovering slowly with weak orders; the secondary copper downstream sector, constrained by invoice issues and high-priced raw materials, has essentially stalled in stockpiling, while cable end-users are also actively avoiding high-priced raw materials and reducing proactive restocking. Looking ahead to next week, most processing enterprises will gradually begin their holiday shutdowns, pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete, high copper prices and high premiums continue to raise purchasing costs, the space for end-user proactive restocking is already limited, and market trading will further thin out. "Strong season without prosperity" has become the mainstream market assessment. Close attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations during the long holiday, and order fulfillment after the holiday resumption will become a key indicator for verifying genuine end-use demand. Short-term demand is unlikely to provide sustained upward momentum for copper prices.
Inventory and Warehouse Receipts
LME warehouse receipts changed by -875.00 tonnes from the previous trading day to 250,475 tonnes. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -2,693 tonnes from the previous trading day to 10,732 tonnes. On September 28, domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 78,300 tonnes, a change of 5,700 tonnes from the previous week.
Strategy
Copper: Neutral. Recently, the tug-of-war between macro factors and fundamentals in the copper market has intensified, with geopolitical conflicts and US economic data raising rate hike expectations disturbing the market, keeping copper prices in a high-range oscillation. Domestic spot prices are supported by low inventory, with premiums surging past one thousand, but high prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing its end, and demand has not shown substantive peak-season recovery; mine-side raw material tightness persists, import losses are widening, and scrap copper trading remains sluggish due to invoice issues. As the National Day long holiday approaches, market trading is gradually thinning, and vigilance is needed regarding overseas market fluctuation risks during the holiday. In terms of operations, short-term copper prices are oscillating at high levels, and chasing highs is not advisable; longs can gradually reduce positions on rallies to avoid long-holiday uncertainty. Industrial clients should focus on needs-based purchasing and are not advised to stockpile heavily; shorts should watch for pulse rallies caused by short covering amid low domestic inventory, control position sizes, and hedge holiday risks. Weekly fluctuations may range between 108,600 yuan per tonne and 111,000 yuan per tonne.
Arbitrage: On hold. Options: On hold.
Risks
Domestic demand declining too rapidly; inventory building up significantly; overseas liquidity stampede risk.
Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289.
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