A two-week ceasefire has been agreed upon by the United States, Israel, and Iran through Pakistan's mediation. US and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks on Friday, April 10th, to discuss a long-term solution. Despite Tehran and Washington agreeing to negotiations, Iran's 10-point proposal—which US President Trump called a "workable basis" for talks—and Washington's previously presented 15-point plan show almost no common ground, indicating significant gaps remain to be bridged.
For instance, Iran's proposal includes demands regarding uranium enrichment, an option Washington had previously explicitly ruled out. Furthermore, the 10-point proposal does not address Iran's missile capabilities, which both Israel and the US insist must be significantly curtailed.
Due to these core disagreements persisting after the two-week ceasefire coordination, US crude oil prices rebounded over 2.5% after touching near $91 per barrel on Wednesday. The upward trend continued with volatility during Asian and European trading hours on Thursday, with prices currently trading around $97.50 per barrel, marking an intraday gain of approximately 3.2%.
Pakistan's mediator, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, announced on platform X that Iran and the US had agreed to a temporary ceasefire, stating that both sides consented to an immediate cessation of hostilities in all regions, including Lebanon where Israel has conducted strikes. Sharif's statement did not mention Iran's 10-point proposal, the US's 15-point plan, or any agreement involving Israel.
A Pakistani official stationed in the region indicated that Iran is expected to secure several of its demands, focusing on reconstruction, compensation, and the lifting of sanctions, but cannot expect an agreement on the issue of uranium enrichment.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that US military strikes against Iran would be suspended for two weeks if Iran agreed to "fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz." He stated that the sides were very close to a final agreement for long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East. While he referred to Iran's 10-point proposal as a "workable basis" for negotiations, he did not list specific points and mentioned that several previously contentious major issues had been resolved.
An Israeli source revealed that the 15-point proposal previously conveyed to Iran by the US via Pakistan demanded the removal of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a halt to uranium enrichment activities, curbs on its ballistic missile program, and an end to financial support for regional allies.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a declaration that Iran agreed to halt what it termed "defensive actions" if attacks against it ceased. He said this was based on the US's negotiation request per its 15-point plan and Trump's agreement to use Iran's 10-point plan as a basis for talks. He indicated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible over the next two weeks, "in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and with due regard for technical limitations."
Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared that Washington had agreed to accept Iran's 10-point plan and that "the US has, in principle, committed" to: refraining from aggressive action; continuing to recognize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz; accepting Iran's uranium enrichment; lifting all primary and secondary sanctions; terminating all resolutions passed by the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors; withdrawing US combat forces from the region; and ending hostilities on all fronts, including actions against the Islamic Resistance Movement in Lebanon. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, a senior Iranian official had stated that Iran would impose transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered an international waterway.
Israel stated it had reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran but emphasized that the agreement does not include halting military operations in Lebanon. An Israeli official said the US coordinated this temporary ceasefire with Israel in advance, adding that while Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, it made no commitments regarding a final end to the war, compensation, or the lifting of sanctions. The official also stated that the Trump administration had informed Israel that in the upcoming two weeks of negotiations with Iran, the US would insist on the removal of nuclear materials, a cessation of uranium enrichment, and the elimination of the ballistic missile threat, alongside addressing other issues.
The ceasefire has suppressed the war-risk premium in oil prices, but crude has not fallen decisively. While the truce has cooled the "war panic," fundamental disagreements between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz, rights to uranium enrichment, and the Lebanese front mean prices cannot return to pre-conflict levels below $80 per barrel. Over the next two weeks, statements from each round of talks are likely to trigger significant oil price volatility, keeping the market in a highly sensitive state where both bullish and bearish arguments can be justified.
The temporary two-week US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, signals a temporary de-escalation of conflict. However, statements from all parties reveal significant differences in the interpretation of the agreement's terms. Trump emphasized the necessity for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully, immediately, and safely opened, while Iran insists on its rights to uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and regional security demands as outlined in its 10-point plan. Israel has explicitly excluded its operations in Lebanon from the ceasefire's scope. The formal negotiations over the next two weeks will tackle core分歧 including reconstruction, sanctions, nuclear issues, and missile capabilities. The challenge of transforming the ceasefire into a lasting peace remains formidable.
As of 14:32 Beijing Time, US crude continuous contract was reported at $97.47 per barrel.
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