According to Zhitong Finance APP, CMSC (06099) has released a research report stating that after the market rebound, the core of allocation has shifted from long-term potential to earnings-side performance realization. The core approach for sector allocation over the next 3-6 months is as follows: during the high interest rate phase, focus on earnings-side advantages, followed by whether the chip structure is healthy; when interest rates turn downward, prioritize the broadening of technology; and wait for subsequent domestic policy follow-through before further expanding into domestic demand. There are primarily three major opportunities. Opportunity one: technology broadening repair after the 10Y yield confirms a downturn 鈥?the highest-certainty trade. Opportunity two: domestic demand and pro-cyclical broadening under internal and external resonance 鈥?a re-examination of the September 2024 experience. Opportunity three: the counterintuitive brokers 鈥?policy value after index pullbacks. The main viewpoints of CMSC (600999) are as follows: after the market rebound, the core of allocation lies in earnings-side prosperity premium under high interest rates, with short-term positioning anchored by tech leaders with the strongest earnings and clean chip structures plus dividend plays, while waiting for technology broadening repair after U.S. Treasury yields turn. This week's market was a mild rebound supported by micro-level liquidity, with broad-based ETFs seeing increased net inflows and a pulse-like net buying on the afternoon of October 9, pointing to market stabilization operations.
On the external front, the U.S.-Iran negotiation window has reopened, and China-EU trade frictions have seen substantive easing, reducing geopolitical risks in the short term; however, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield remains at a high of 5.2%-5.3%, the Fed's September minutes leaned hawkish, and a pause in October rate hikes is the baseline scenario, with term premium upward pressure making interest rate judgments more difficult. On the industry front, AI prosperity has not experienced systemic deterioration, and capital is further concentrating in leaders with the strongest earnings and cash flow; combined with the third-quarter earnings window, allocation criteria should shift from long-term potential to current-period prosperity realization, and short-term priority should still be given to areas where third-quarter earnings are expected to grow strongly or improve, such as the AI industry chain, resource commodities, mid-to-high-end manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, securities, and textile manufacturing.
This week, the A-share market saw a volume-driven adjustment after the holiday, with a bottoming-out recovery on Friday. The main reasons include: (1) The Fed's September meeting minutes and officials' remarks retained the possibility of further rate hikes, long-end U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, overseas semiconductor stocks came under pressure and weakened, combined with technology realization pressure, suppressing growth valuations. (2) The Strait of Hormuz navigation risk has been recurring, and whether the U.S.-Iran situation will ease remains unclear, with rising international oil prices driving energy sector activity, while the actual supply recovery of shipping capacity remains uncertain. (3) The battery chain continued to be active, media, software and other AI applications strengthened on Friday, the National Climate Center confirmed that El Nino has formed, climate risks drove agricultural trading, third-quarter earnings previews pushed some chemical stocks to recover, and market hotspots spread toward applications and performance-driven lines. National Day travel demand remained resilient, and global semiconductor sales in August saw an expanded year-over-year increase.
Areas with improving prosperity this week mainly include: 1) Among resource commodities, coal, crude oil, and most chemical product prices rose; 2) TMT continued high prosperity, DDR5 memory prices continued to rise, North American PCB shipments in August saw an expanded three-month rolling year-over-year increase, and global semiconductor sales in August saw an expanded year-over-year increase; 3) The baijiu price index and fresh milk prices rose; 4) BDTI rose rapidly. Sectors with relatively high or improving prosperity are recommended, including petrochemicals, building materials, semiconductors, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and pharmaceutical biology.
ETFs saw net subscriptions, and margin financing saw net inflows. Margin financing funds totaled a net inflow of 4.15 billion yuan; newly established equity-focused public funds amounted to 1.18 billion shares, down 6.19 billion shares from the previous period; ETFs saw net subscriptions, corresponding to a net inflow of 40.82 billion yuan. Margin financing funds saw net buying in pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, non-bank financials, etc.; information technology ETFs saw more subscriptions, while consumer ETFs saw more redemptions. Major shareholders shifted from net reductions to net increases, and planned reduction scale declined.
OpenAI ARR has drawn attention, and AI vendors are exploring differentiated development paths. Recently, the "decline" in OpenAI ARR triggered market concerns about the sustainability of AI commercialization, but the revenue calculation methodology was subsequently clarified, and market focus further landed on the actual growth momentum of model vendors. Currently, ARR for both OpenAI and Anthropic continues to grow, but the former's quarter-over-quarter growth rate has marginally rebounded while the latter has slowed, and commercialization competition is gradually intensifying. Meanwhile, Google and Musk's Agent platform have successively introduced the Claude model, and leading vendors have begun competing for enterprise AI application entry points and model scheduling rights.
This week, the overall A-share valuation level declined compared to last week. The Wind All A Index PE (TTM) was 16.5, down 0.2 from last week, at the 57.7th percentile of historical valuation levels. Most index valuations declined this week, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, and coal leading gains, while electronics, defense and military industry, and machinery equipment led declines.
Risk warnings: Economic data falling short of expectations, incomplete understanding of policies, and overseas policy tightening beyond expectations.
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