Bitcoin has plunged about 30% from its all-time high, highlighting the cryptocurrency's volatility. However, JPMorgan believes the price of Bitcoin could still skyrocket to $170,000 at some point in the next 12 months.
JPMorgan stated that Bitcoin could rise by 84% over the next 6 to 12 months, citing its model's prediction that Bitcoin will trade similarly to gold prices.
A team of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a client note on Wednesday: "The volatility-adjusted comparison between Bitcoin and gold continues to suggest a theoretical Bitcoin price near $170,000, indicating significant upside potential for Bitcoin over the next 6-12 months."
This forecast comes as Bitcoin has faced a challenging period in recent months. Bearish sentiment has taken hold due to widespread risk aversion, concerns over 2026 interest rate trends, and worries about MicroStrategy, the Bitcoin-focused financial firm founded by Michael Saylor.
Nevertheless, JPMorgan has long argued that Bitcoin's trading behavior may increasingly resemble gold. This was most evident in April when tariff concerns triggered a historic sell-off in U.S. stocks and drove capital into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
JPMorgan's strategists also highlighted two key factors that could influence Bitcoin's price in the near term:
1. **MicroStrategy Holding Its Bitcoin Position** Recent concerns have grown that MicroStrategy might start offloading some of its Bitcoin holdings as prices plummet and its stock premium relative to Bitcoin declines.
JPMorgan noted that if MicroStrategy maintains its Bitcoin position, it would be bullish for the cryptocurrency. The company is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, despite rumors of potential token sales heating up last month.
MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le recently stated that the firm might eventually sell Bitcoin if its mNAV (market net asset value) falls below the threshold of 1. Latest data on the company's website shows this metric hovering around 1.1, which measures MicroStrategy's market cap relative to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
However, JPMorgan strategists pointed out that MicroStrategy recently raised $1.4 billion in cash reserves. This fund could cover costs like dividends and interest payments for about two years without requiring Bitcoin sales.
The strategists added: "If this ratio stays above 1.0, MicroStrategy could ultimately avoid selling Bitcoin, and the market may take comfort that the worst for Bitcoin prices could be over."
2. **MicroStrategy Remaining in MSCI Indices** MSCI will decide in January whether to exclude companies that allocate 50% or more of their assets to digital assets from its indices.
JPMorgan previously estimated that if this rule is implemented, MicroStrategy would be removed from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices, potentially triggering outflows of around $2.8 billion from the stock.
However, the bank's strategists noted: "On the other hand, if MSCI's decision on January 15 is favorable, both MicroStrategy and Bitcoin could rebound strongly to pre-October 10 levels." This suggests the cryptocurrency could recover toward its all-time highs under such a scenario.
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