Pacific Securities released a research report highlighting the importance of strategic repositioning in the new energy sector amid market lows, driven by continuous technological advancements and improving upstream supply-demand conditions. The firm emphasized opportunities in segments with enhanced pricing power in mid-upstream industries, noting that lowered expectations create fresh entry points, with current conditions favoring leading players and upstream flexibility. Initial progress in photovoltaic (PV) "anti-involution" efforts also presents bottom-fishing opportunities. Key insights include:
**New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Chain: Upcycle Begins** 1. **Battery Innovations Gain Traction**: - BMW’s next-gen iX3, equipped with Eve Energy’s large cylindrical cells, achieved 1,007.7 km in real-road testing (exceeding its 805 km WLTP rating). Eve Energy plans a ~30GWh large cylindrical battery plant near BMW’s Hungary facility (2026 production). Beneficiaries: CATL, Eve Energy, Putailai. - Solid-state battery progress: Industry leaders like Weilan New Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, and Hyperstrong discussed lab achievements (824Wh/kg density, targeting 1,000Wh/kg), adopting a dual-path strategy—full solid-state for high-value robotics/low-altitude economy and semi-solid-state for energy storage/entry-level EVs. - QuantumScape (QS) signed solid-state battery deals with global automakers.
2. **Lithium Battery Cathode Sector Optimism**: - LFP demand surge expected by 2026 (5.8M tons vs. 3.9M tons in 2025), with tight supply for fourth-gen materials. Beneficiaries: Hunan Yuneng, Ronbay Technology, Tinci Materials. - Rising LFP costs (Nov: ¥14,704.8/ton avg, up ¥279.3 MoM). - Ronbay’s acquisition of Guizhou Xinren (93.2% stake) bolsters LFP material capacity (60k tons/year).
**PV/Storage Chain: Anti-Involution Progress** - Major PV firms drafted an industry self-regulation pact, proposing export tax rebate cancellations, capacity controls (80–100k tons silicon by 2026), and 70%+ utilization rates. Beneficiaries: LONGi Green Energy, Aiko Solar, GCL Tech. - MIIT outlined 2026 priorities:产能调控, innovation, standards, and global collaboration to curb恶性竞争.
**AI+New Energy & Wind Power: Emerging Markets** 1. **Robotics Breakthroughs**: - CATL launched the world’s first humanoid robot ("Xiao Mo") for battery production. - Midea unveiled its six-limbed robot "Milo U," targeting 30% efficiency gains in smart factories.
2. **Wind Power Outperforms**: - Jan–Nov 2025 saw 117.97GW wind projects (91.33% onshore), with top 5 OEMs (Goldwind, Envision, etc.) holding 68.02% share. Offshore wind prices rose MoM in November. - Dajin Heavy Industries began core component production for Poland’s BC-Wind project (27 monopiles/transition pieces, 2026 delivery).
**Risks**: Weak downstream demand, intensified competition, and slower tech advancements.
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