On July 2nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation, issued three mandatory national standards for photovoltaic energy consumption and efficiency. These standards, covering key segments of the photovoltaic industry chain including polysilicon, silicon wafers, modules, and inverters, establish graded energy consumption and efficiency targets for related products, strictly controlling high-consumption, low-efficiency capacity across all stages. For modules, an innovative evaluation index incorporating coupled environmental stress degradation rate has been introduced.
The formal implementation of these new national energy consumption and efficiency standards has garnered widespread attention within the photovoltaic sector. Multiple experts indicate that this systematic upgrade of efficiency standards for the entire industry chain serves as a crucial tool for the industry to continue eliminating disorderly internal competition and advancing high-quality development. The three standards are expected to significantly accelerate the phase-out of inefficient and outdated production capacity in the polysilicon and module segments. However, the current supply of high-quality module capacity remains relatively ample, necessitating that companies adhere to production based on sales, reasonably reduce operating rates, and strictly control inventory levels.
GF Futures noted that, according to SMM statistics, annual photovoltaic module production capacity has already exceeded 1000GW. In May, photovoltaic module output was 36.36GW, with an operating rate of only around 35%, and most of this represents high-efficiency capacity. The elimination of low-efficiency capacity is not expected to impact short-term supply and demand dynamics. Orient Futures added that currently, most photovoltaic glass manufacturers are unwilling to sell off goods at low prices, showing a strong willingness to support prices. The core variable for future market direction remains the realization of production cuts on the supply side; if cold repair plans proceed as scheduled, prices are expected to bottom out and rebound.
Huatai Securities believes the policy's introduction is expected to accelerate the clearance of production capacity, benefiting high-efficiency cell and module technologies like BC, HJT, and TOPCon 3.0. Technologically lagging or financially constrained second and third-tier enterprises are likely to be gradually phased out.
Related Hong Kong-listed stocks in the photovoltaic industry chain include: Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd. (06865); Kaisheng New Energy Co., Ltd. (01108); Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd. (00968); Xinte Energy (01799); and GCL Technology (03800).
Comments