According to a report released on June 11, Goldman Sachs Group has lowered its 2027 Brent crude oil price forecast by $5 to $80 per barrel, citing increased supply and reduced demand.
Analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby stated that, given the UAE's exit from OPEC, the firm anticipates increased supply next year from that country as well as from the Americas.
The report noted that while "demand is likely to rebound strongly after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," it also expects "demand weakness to persist as China accelerates its shift to alternative energy sources, such as electric vehicles, which account for just over 10%."
Goldman Sachs now projects that oil exports from Persian Gulf producers will normalize by the end of August, a revision from its previous expectation of June.
The report forecasts a global crude oil supply deficit of 5 to 6 million barrels per day for the second quarter of this year. It estimates that, in the absence of conflict, demand would be about 5 million barrels per day lower, while a supply surplus would exceed 4 million barrels per day.
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