The finalization of the US-Iran peace agreement has introduced new variables into global asset prices.
According to reports, on the 14th, US Eastern Time, the US President announced on social media that the US-Iran agreement was "now complete."
On June 15, crude oil prices plummeted, stock markets in Japan and South Korea surged to trigger circuit breakers, while the gold and precious metals sector bucked the trend, staging an "atypical" market performance that defied traditional expectations.
Following spot gold's surge past $4,310 per ounce, A-share precious metals concepts rallied strongly. By the market close, Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. (SZSE: 000506) hit the daily limit-up, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Group Limited (SSE: 600988) and Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (SSE: 601889) also posted gains. The Hong Kong stock gold sector followed suit, with ZIJIN MINING (HKEX: 02899) closing up 15%.
A recent research report from China Galaxy Securities analyzed that while the US-Iran agreement window has tempered expectations for extreme supply shocks, many issues remain unresolved, and Middle East risks will continue to influence crude oil, shipping, and inflation expectations.
A fund manager noted that the ceasefire agreement does not mean the US dollar system has repaired the deep-seated fissures exposed during the conflict. This months-long Middle East conflict has demonstrated that the US's dominant position in the energy order of the Strait of Hormuz is being challenged. Even if Iran ultimately reopens the shipping lanes, the credibility of the "petrodollar" system has left deeper questions in the global market.
Gold Surpasses $4,300, Shifting Safe-Haven Logic
According to news reports, on the 15th local time, Pakistan's Prime Minister stated that after intensive negotiations, the US and Iran had reached a peace agreement. Both sides announced an immediate and permanent cessation of all military actions on all fronts, including operations in Lebanon. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
Driven by this news, the gold price spiked, remaining above $4,300 at the time of writing, up approximately 2.5%. In the traditional framework, geopolitical de-escalation implies outflows from safe-haven assets. However, gold's performance this time completely overturned this "rule."
Risk assets also enjoyed a broad-based celebratory rally. In the Asia-Pacific markets, Japanese and South Korean stock markets closed sharply higher. The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.99%, with Kioxia Holdings Corporation up nearly 12% and SoftBank Group Corp. gaining over 10%. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose over 5%, with SK hynix Inc. up over 6%. The traditional "seesaw" relationship between risk assets and gold was broken in this market movement.
So why did gold rise instead of fall as geopolitical risks eased? Institutions widely believe the market narrative is shifting from "war safe-haven" to "inflation hedge."
Previous US-Iran tensions pushed up energy prices, directly leading to a 4.2% year-on-year increase in US CPI for May, the highest level since May 2023, with energy prices being the primary driver of inflation.
The fund manager analyzed that market concerns about Fed rate hikes are based on the assumption of persistently higher-than-expected inflation. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz implies weakening inflation expectations, potentially reopening room for a shift in Fed policy and easing pressure on US Treasury real yields to rise.
Currently, the drop in oil prices following the agreement directly alleviates inflation expectations. Weaker inflation expectations, in turn, create potential for a shift in Fed policy, easing pressure on US Treasury real yields. Gold is no longer a tool for betting on escalating Middle East conflict but has returned to its role as a hedge against inflation and US dollar credibility.
"Gold, which should have fallen in this pure risk-on trade, is holding near $4,300 with buying interest, indicating the market does not fully trust this agreement," a trader noted. The market is shifting from a war safe-haven narrative to an inflation hedge framework. Gold is no longer a tool for betting on escalating Middle East conflict but a tool for betting on a global decline in inflation and falling real interest rates.
Regarding the medium-to-long-term logic supporting gold's structural uptrend, Zhongtai Securities pointed out that it lies in strategic purchases by global central banks, the irreversible process of de-dollarization, and the long-term trend of fiscal deficits. Gold still possesses irreplaceable allocation value in the medium to long term.
Strait Reopens, Oil Sheds Geopolitical Premium
Simultaneously, as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil prices plunged.
According to reports, the US President stated on the 14th via social media that the US-Iran agreement was "now complete" and would open the Strait of Hormuz.
The front-month WTI crude oil futures contract fell nearly 6%, breaking below $80 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures fell over 5%, probing near $82 per barrel. The oil price, which had been pushed to nearly $120 due to US-Iran conflict, has essentially erased all geopolitical risk premiums within just a few weeks.
Shenwan Futures believes the short-term decline in oil prices is largely complete, with current prices at the lower end of the recent trading range, leaving extremely limited downside. However, the market must remain vigilant for potential disruptions such as renewed geopolitical conflict, disagreements over the implementation of the US-Iran agreement, and the resurgence of regional skirmishes. Such geopolitical variables could trigger short-term oil price volatility at any time. From a medium-term annual perspective, if peace can be sustained, international oil prices are expected to maintain a central trading range of $75-$85 per barrel over the next year, making a unilateral sharp rise or fall unlikely.
Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities examined the implementation timeline of the agreement's terms. Although the US and Iran have formally confirmed the memorandum of understanding, the agreement is essentially a phased framework arrangement that does not resolve core contradictions like the nuclear issue and control of the strait. Expectations for the strait's reopening are fraught with multiple uncertainties. The sequence for implementing various clauses of the agreement still needs further finalization, and details of strait management remain unclear.
Furthermore, the institution noted that even if the strait is declared reopened, mine clearance in shipping lanes and port repairs will take time. Previously damaged oil fields, gas fields, and refineries will require considerable time for full recovery.
From an inventory perspective, the US Energy Information Administration stated in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that, affected by a daily production loss of 11 million barrels due to the Middle East conflict, petroleum inventories in major global economies are declining at a record pace. It is estimated that OECD member country inventories will fall to less than 23 billion barrels in December, the lowest level since EIA records began in 2003.
Against this backdrop of inventory shortages, the EIA predicts the average spot price for North Sea Brent crude will reach $105 per barrel from June to July, showing a significant premium over the futures market price of approximately $92.98 for the same period.
Market institutions show clear divergence in judging the floor for oil prices. Shenwan Futures believes the current price is at the lower end of the trading range with extremely limited downside; Galaxy Futures judges the short-term trend as weak with potential for further decline; Ping An Securities predicts Brent crude will trade around $90 in the near term; while the US Energy Information Agency forecasts a year-end Brent crude price of $86 per barrel.
A senior commodity strategist at TD Securities judged that even if the agreement fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, oil fundamentals will tighten significantly. A substantial volume of production losses and inventory drawdowns are expected between June and November, with the market deficit peaking in July before gradually easing.
New Variables Catalyze Reshaping of Global Asset Allocation Logic
The finalization of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement does not represent a complete resolution of geopolitical risk but rather serves as a key entry point for observing new logic in global asset pricing.
First, the uncertainty of the 60-day negotiation period leaves room for Middle East tensions to resurface. According to disclosed information, following this agreement, after Iran verifies US fulfillment of relevant commitments, both sides will initiate a 60-day formal negotiation period to reach long-term consensus on broader core issues.
Huatai Securities analysts believe the current ceasefire leans more towards a "phased achievement" rather than the final resolution of the Middle East situation. Significant differences remain between the two sides on multiple core issues, casting doubt on the continuity of agreement implementation. However, from an asset allocation perspective, after short-term headwinds, i.e., once the strait enters an orderly opening phase and US Treasury yields have largely completed "price discovery," allocation to gold and strategic resources is still recommended.
Second, new variables in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle are reshaping global liquidity expectations.
At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on June 18, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, marking the first FOMC meeting for the new Chair, Kevin Warsh. CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in June is as high as 98.5%, but the probability of a rate hike by December has approached 70%.
Institutions anticipate that the focus of this meeting may be on potential communication reforms initiated by Chair Warsh, such as abolishing the dot plot or reducing the frequency of press conferences. The market's relied-upon pricing anchors are facing systematic adjustment. While the decision itself holds little suspense, the hawkish signals and reform roadmap potentially released by Chair Warsh are the key variables affecting global asset pricing.
After the ebbing of short-term event-driven shocks, a series of variables are gradually driving systematic changes in the allocation of global asset classes.
East Money Securities analyzed the policy path of the "Warsh era" in its 2026 Overseas and Asset Allocation Mid-Year Strategy. Following Kevin Warsh's assumption of the Fed Chair role in May 2026, it is expected that his advocacy for "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts" will be difficult to implement substantively in the short term. Three potential paths may emerge within the year: a potential shift towards rate hikes if oil price pressures permeate core inflation and employment recovers strongly; continued room for rate cuts if Middle East tensions ease alongside weakening employment; or maintaining the status quo for a longer period if employment stabilizes and the Middle East situation remains deadlocked. Regarding gold, the report judges that gold's pricing logic may revert to the restructuring of the global monetary system, and its long-term allocation value as a non-sovereign credit asset remains.
From a longer-cycle perspective, Goldman Sachs recommends that long-term investors overweight gold and underweight oil over the next five years, stating that gold can hedge fiscal and central bank credibility risks, while oil can guard against supply shocks. Their analysis points out that the high risk of US institutional credibility being impacted (fiscal expansion, pressure on the Fed) and global central bank demand for gold are the two core factors supporting an overweight in gold.
CICC has redefined safe-haven assets, arguing that as the old international order loosens and the probability of geopolitical risks increases, the logic of safe-haven assets has transformed. The report observes capital beginning to rebalance across countries, styles, and asset classes. Emerging market and European stock markets hit new highs, while US stock performance was relatively weaker. At the cross-asset level, capital increased allocation to commodities, with gold, crude oil, and agricultural products successively delivering strong performance.
Furthermore, Huatai Securities pointed out that historical experience shows that post-conflict, overseas governments often stabilize expectations by expanding defense spending, enhancing energy and supply chain security, and increasing subsidies for residents, leading to fiscal loosening, decreased discipline, and difficulty in quickly reducing deficit ratios. With developed economies' debt ratios already at historically high levels, if high debt coexists with loose fiscal policy long-term, market concerns about the sustainability of overseas fiscal policy and the credibility of fiat currencies may intensify. This will continue to strengthen the long-term allocation value of gold and strategic resources.
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