The commercial aerospace sector has received another significant positive catalyst. According to the latest reports, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that SpaceX aims to achieve full rocket reusability this year through its "Starship" technology. This breakthrough is expected to slash the cost of space access by a staggering 99%, bringing it down to under $100 per pound. Simultaneously, China's commercial aerospace industry has also welcomed favorable policies.
According to the Jiuquan Municipal People's Government website, the "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan (2026-2035)" was recently released. It proposes that Jiuquan City's strategic positioning is to build a National Commercial Aerospace Launch Base, a National Aerospace Research and Test Base, a National Commercial Aerospace Technical Service Support Base, and a National Commercial Aerospace Data Application Base. The plan clarifies basic principles including park support and cluster development, compatible support and systematic guarantees, and high-efficiency coordination and systemic innovation.
In his latest remarks on January 22 local time, Musk made a rare appearance at the Davos forum for a dialogue with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, where he outlined his vision for space exploration, artificial intelligence, and robotics. Regarding space exploration, Musk stated that his company SpaceX aims to achieve full rocket reusability this year through the "Starship" technology. He further pointed out that if Starship can achieve full reusability, it will reduce the cost of reaching space to just 1% of current levels, bringing it below $100 per pound. SpaceX has already demonstrated the ability to catch rocket boosters at the launch site but has not yet attempted to recover and reuse a Starship spacecraft.
Simultaneously, Musk also discussed plans to launch AI satellites powered by solar energy within the next few years, noting that solar panels in space would be five times more efficient than those on Earth due to constant, unobstructed sunlight without atmospheric interference. He predicted that the place with the lowest cost for deploying AI would be in space, a feat achievable within two to three years.
At the forum, Musk also mentioned the latest progress Tesla has made in robotics. He revealed that Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot, Optimus, to the public by the end of next year. Musk also stated that Tesla's Robotaxi autonomous ride-hailing service is expected to be deployed on a large scale in the U.S. this year, adding that "by the end of this year, this service will be very common across the United States." He noted that Robotaxi services without in-car safety supervisors have already begun in Austin, Texas.
Looking ahead, Musk predicted that AI will be "smarter than any single human" by the end of this year or next year at the latest. He described his companies' overarching goal as "maximizing the probability that the future is good for consciousness" and "extending consciousness beyond Earth."
On energy production, Musk stated that a solar panel array measuring 100 miles by 100 miles could power the entire United States. He revealed that teams at SpaceX and Tesla are respectively working towards establishing 100 gigawatts of annual solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within approximately three years.
Meanwhile, China's domestic commercial aerospace industry has also received a major policy boost. According to the Jiuquan Municipal People's Government website, the "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan (2026-2035)" has recently been completed. Centered around the overall vision of building the "China Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Port," the plan systematically elaborates on the significant importance of developing commercial aerospace, provides an in-depth analysis of industry trends, opportunities, current status, foundational conditions, necessity, and feasibility, offering planning guidance and an action plan for the high-quality development of Jiuquan's commercial aerospace industry.
The plan proposes Jiuquan City's strategic positioning to build a National Commercial Aerospace Launch Base, a National Aerospace Research and Test Base, a National Commercial Aerospace Technical Service Support Base, and a National Commercial Aerospace Data Application Base. It clarifies basic principles including park support and cluster development, compatible support and systematic guarantees, and high-efficiency coordination and systemic innovation, and sets development targets for Jiuquan's aerospace industry for 2030 and 2035.
In terms of industrial layout, the plan clearly outlines building an industrial structure of "One Port, Two Zones, Multiple Linkage Points." Guided by the principle of serving "national aerospace needs with Jiuquan's industrial capabilities," it proposes fostering seven major industries: launch and testing services, rocket manufacturing and testing, satellite manufacturing, testing and application, aerospace data backup and application, aerospace technical support services, aerospace logistics and support, and aerospace-themed tourism.
To ensure the effective implementation of the plan, it also proposes seven major initiatives: a focused investment attraction campaign, a breakthrough projects push, park quality improvement, comprehensive supporting guarantees, sci-tech finance empowerment, and enhancing the aerospace brand. The plan further proposes ensuring the orderly and healthy development of Jiuquan's aerospace industry from five aspects: strengthening organizational leadership, reinforcing policy support, optimizing the business environment, enhancing monitoring and evaluation, and preventing and mitigating risks.
China Galaxy Securities stated that, based on calculations referencing the global satellite industry structure, it is estimated that by 2030, downstream operational applications in China such as ground equipment manufacturing and satellite services will contribute 1.3 trillion yuan in associated output value. Combined with the mid-and-upstream segments of satellite manufacturing and launch, the entire industry chain boasts vast market potential. The commercial aerospace industry is entering a golden era driven by both demand-side and supply-side forces.
China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on two directions. The first is satellite launches: private rocket companies are developing rapidly, and the industry chain is in a transition phase from state-led to commercial aerospace; it is advisable to focus on structural component suppliers. The second is satellite manufacturing: current low-earth orbit satellite activities are mainly concentrated on building space segment and ground segment infrastructure, suggesting a short-term focus on the satellite manufacturing field. Subsystem and material suppliers in the mid-and-upstream segments are expected to benefit first due to their direct support for mass satellite production.
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