Vessels from the shadow fleet are currently leading the transit of tankers and gas carriers through the Strait of Hormuz, while compliant tonnage—with the exception of several tankers from Dynacom and a very small number of other ships—is largely avoiding this tense waterway. According to an analysis by Lloyd's List, approximately half of all oil and gas tankers over 10,000 deadweight tonnes that transited the strait between March 1st and 8th belonged to the so-called "shadow fleet." This analysis also incorporated instances of suspected "dark activity," where ships navigate with their identification signals switched off. Gathering transit data has become increasingly difficult as more vessels disable their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) while passing through the strait, compounded by widespread interference with the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) in the region.
Meanwhile, Iran has begun using a rarely utilized terminal located south of the Strait of Hormuz to load vessels. According to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was loaded last week at the Jask terminal near Kooh Mobarak, marking only the fifth time a vessel has been loaded there in the past five years. Madani stated that the previous loading at the terminal occurred in December of last year, involving a Suezmax tanker. The low utilization rate of the terminal may be partly due to the extended time required for loading operations. Madani said, "Nothing moves quickly there." "The last time a VLCC was loaded there, it took about 10 days." In contrast, loading a VLCC typically takes only one to two days at Iran's main crude export terminal, Kharg Island.
Transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz has declined significantly since February 28th, following strikes by the US and Israel against Iran and Iran's subsequent retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, leaving ports and ships clearly under threat. Shadow fleet vessels may be transiting the strait based on the assessment that, as they serve Iran's energy exports, they are less likely to be targeted by Iran. However, since the conflict began, at least two shadow fleet tankers have been attacked.
With the notable exception of Greek shipowner Dynacom, most mainstream shipowners still consider transit through the Strait of Hormuz to be excessively risky. Since March 1st, at least three other tankers not affiliated with Dynacom have transited the strait, but these vessels were already located west of Hormuz when the conflict erupted. The Dynacom-owned Suezmax tanker Shenlong (IMO: 9379210) transited the strait around March 8th, carrying crude oil loaded at Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, with its current destination listed as Mumbai, India.
It has been reported that US President Donald Trump has urged other shipowners to follow Dynacom's example and "show some courage" by transiting the strait. Trump said in an interview with Fox News, "Those ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz, show some courage. There's nothing to be afraid of... They [Iran] have no navy, we sunk all their ships." Several shipowners contacted by Lloyd's List privately expressed derision towards Trump's comments, pointing out that the current threat level for transiting the strait remains extremely high.
A recent alert issued on Monday by the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), which aggregates naval intelligence, stated: "The regional maritime threat environment remains at a CRITICAL level, meaning attacks against merchant shipping are still likely, and the shipping environment remains highly dangerous." JMIC emphasized that although no attacks have been reported in the past 48 hours, offensive activity continues across the region, and the absence of attacks "should be viewed as a temporary lull rather than a change in adversary intent."
While shipowners await further details regarding potential US naval escorts—a possibility first raised by Trump last week—European leaders are also discussing an EU-supported escort operation. French President Emmanuel Macron stated on Monday that he is pushing for the launch of a joint maritime task force to provide escorts for vessels, aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following the initial intense phase of the conflict. Macron told reporters at Paphos Air Base in Cyprus, "We are currently setting up a purely defensive, purely supportive mission, which must be prepared with European and non-European countries." Macron said the idea is to "gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz" after the "most intense" phase of the conflict. He mentioned the project is being prepared "with our partners" but did not specify which countries are involved.
In a separate joint statement issued by European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, they also expressed a willingness to "further adapt and strengthen" the EU's existing naval operations, Aspides and Atalanta, "to better respond" to the situation in the Middle East. The European Commission has not yet responded to inquiries regarding what specific actions are under consideration.
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