Bitcoin climbed against the grain from roughly $58,000 in the summer to a September peak of $86,000 even as the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with rate hikes, a counterintuitive move that has drawn intense market scrutiny.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, separately dissected this phenomenon—which defies traditional financial logic—from the perspectives of micro liquidity and macro fiscal policy.
The core conflict lies in why BTC displayed such strong upward momentum when dollar liquidity was expected to tighten, and both experts pointed to a fundamental shift in the supply-demand structure.
Sigel attributed the nearly $30,000 price gain to the complete exhaustion of selling pressure rather than any single major event.
Multiple technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered bullish signals over the summer, confirming the judgment that market selling pressure had dried up. Notably, the U.S. Treasury's subsequent bond buyback program further catalyzed the price rebound.
From a correlation standpoint, BTC lacks a sustained positive correlation with bond yields, yet it moves inversely to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and positively with money supply.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that M2 money supply began accelerating three quarters earlier, and BTC typically reacts to such liquidity changes with a lag, providing positive support for its medium-term trajectory.
Although Sigel warned that a high-rate environment pressures any asset, he noted that BTC is currently holding near $78,000 and standing above the 50-week moving average—a key "line in the sand"—keeping the technical picture optimistic.
Additionally, as options trading's dominance faded last week, demand for the spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) is expected to recover, thereby reshaping the market structure.
Giancarlo, in a September 24 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, revealed the hidden inflation logic behind rate hikes from a macro fiscal perspective.
He argued that Fed rate hikes directly force the government to bear higher debt interest costs, compelling it to issue more bonds to keep operating, which in turn intensifies market concerns about the long-term depreciation of fiat currency.
With government spending massive and policymakers unable to control excessive money printing, BTC stands out for its unique scarcity value due to its preset supply cap.
Giancarlo likened BTC to gold, emphasizing its role as a safe haven for scarce assets outside the fiat currency system.
When rising financing needs overlap with expectations of currency debasement, assets whose supply cannot be arbitrarily expanded by policymakers—such as BTC—become significantly more attractive.
This analysis grounded in fiscal sustainability explains why BTC's rebound during a rate-hike cycle is not a contradiction but a rational hedge against the dilution of fiat currency credibility.
Taken together, the current market displays a dual characteristic of optimistic technical signals and self-consistent macro logic.
BTC's price stability above the 50-week moving average validates the effectiveness of a key support level from previous market cycles.
Sigel noted that the current rebound strictly aligns with Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern, and market volatility has already dropped by about 50%.
As institutional investors increase their adoption of BTC, this institutionalization trend is expected to further suppress volatility, gradually distancing BTC from its label as a highly volatile speculative asset and evolving it toward a more stable macro allocation asset.
This shift not only consolidates BTC's position within the existing financial system but also provides a new reference framework for asset pricing in complex macro environments ahead.
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