As of the early Asian session on April 30, spot gold was trading near $4,577 per ounce, showing a slight uptick amid volatility. However, this represents only a minor technical rebound following Wednesday's sharp sell-off, with the overall weak trend remaining fundamentally unchanged.
Spot gold plummeted on Wednesday, recording a significant single-day decline of 1.17% to close at $4,543 per ounce. During the session, it even dipped to $4,510.21, marking a new low in nearly a month. The primary factors driving this decline are threefold. First, while the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged in its April meeting, internal policy disagreements reached their most severe level since 1992. An 8:4 voting outcome highlighted a substantial shift towards monetary tightening, completely erasing market expectations for rate cuts within the year and rapidly increasing anticipation for potential hikes. This significantly raised the holding cost for gold, a non-yielding asset. Second, stagflation concerns triggered by Middle East geopolitical conflicts disrupted gold's traditional safe-haven appeal. Soaring oil prices boosted global inflation, paradoxically strengthening expectations for Fed rate hikes. Consequently, capital flowed into the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, rendering gold's safe-haven attributes ineffective. Third, the U.S. dollar index surged strongly to a high of 98.938, while U.S. Treasury yields climbed simultaneously. The resulting siphon effect continued to divert funds away from the gold market.
Nevertheless, the gold market is not without support. Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global gold demand increased by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Central banks continued their strategic accumulation of gold reserves, and retail physical investment demand also rose significantly, providing long-term underlying support for gold prices. Additionally, any further escalation of Middle East tensions could trigger extreme risk aversion in the short term, potentially offering temporary rebound momentum for gold. However, currently, these supportive factors remain relatively weak and are unlikely to outweigh the pressure from multiple negative influences. During the day, markets will focus intently on interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, as well as key U.S. economic data including Q1 GDP and the March core PCE inflation figures. Real-time developments in the Middle East will also significantly impact gold's price movements.
From a daily chart perspective, gold has established a consecutive downward trend after previously consolidating near a top. Wednesday's large bearish candlestick broke through support levels decisively, closing below multiple short-term moving averages. The moving average system now clearly shows a bearish alignment, indicating that the daily trend is fully controlled by sellers. The medium-term downward channel has opened entirely, with the market's center of gravity continuously shifting lower, showing no signs of a reversal or bottoming out.
Regarding technical indicators, the MACD indicator shows expanding green bars trending downwards, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum with no signs of weakening. The KDJ indicator continues to diverge downwards at low levels, showing no signals of an oversold rebound or correction. The overall technical picture on the daily chart is weak. Any price rebound should be viewed merely as an opportunity for selling into strength after a bearish consolidation, as attempting counter-trend long positions carries extremely high risk. Currently, the primary short-term resistance on the daily chart is concentrated in the $4,580-$4,615 range, where the 5-day and 10-day moving averages converge. Unless gold prices can effectively break above and sustain levels beyond this range, a sustained recovery for bulls seems unlikely, and any rebound will likely be short-lived.
The 4-hour chart shows that after consecutive sharp declines, gold briefly touched support near the $4,510 low, leading to some exhaustion of short-term bearish momentum. The minor volatile rebound seen in the early Asian session represents a typical technical oversold bounce following a major drop, not a signal of trend reversal. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains below all short-term moving averages, which continue to cap any upward movements. The Bollinger Band® is expanding with a downward opening, maintaining a clear and smooth descending channel. The lower band provides weak support for consolidation, while the middle band acts as a strong resistance barrier. Technically, the short-term MACD shows a minor bullish crossover at low levels, with green bars contracting and red bars beginning to appear, indicating a need for a minor corrective rebound. However, the potential rebound space is limited and unlikely to alter the overarching bearish trend. The KDJ indicator is hooking upwards from low levels, suggesting the short-term technical correction may continue, but the risk of a secondary decline remains once the rebound exhausts itself. Key rebound resistance on the 4-hour chart lies in the $4,585-$4,600 range. If gold fails to突破 this barrier, a resumption of the downward trend is expected.
The 1-hour chart indicates that after the sharp decline, gold found temporary support near $4,510 and began a corrective bounce, currently trading around $4,577. Short-term moving averages show slight signs of turning upwards, but the price remains below medium and long-term averages, indicating persistent overhead pressure. The 1-hour rebound is primarily technical in nature. Resistance near $4,593 is critical; failure to突破 this level will likely lead prices back into the downward channel.
Trading Strategy Reference for the Asian/European Session: Conservative traders may prefer to wait on the sidelines during the early session. Aggressive traders could consider light long positions if support holds above $4,550, with a stop loss set below $4,540, targeting the $4,585-$4,600 range. However, given the limited rebound potential during Asian hours, chasing the upside is not advisable. If prices fail to突破 overhead resistance, timely profit-taking is recommended. If prices rebound to the $4,590-$4,610 range and encounter resistance in the afternoon session, short positions can be considered.
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