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CITIC Securities released a research report stating that in the context of biosimilar overseas expansion, HENLIUS (02696) has prominent global value, and the company's second growth curve in innovative drugs is clear, with abundant catalysts from large single products and early-stage research pipelines. The bank calculated through a DCF model that the reasonable equity value of HENLIUS is HK$66.7 billion, corresponding to a target price of HK$122 for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
Biosimilar overseas expansion has a global market foundation, with external demand and internal supply resonating, and China's advantages are expected to match the global window period. Core overseas expansion capabilities are expected to bring about a global value reassessment of the biosimilar sector.
CITIC Securities pointed out that the CMC platform determines the development ceiling of highly difficult varieties, and global access and commercialization capabilities drive the realization of back-end value; from single-product licensing to platform cooperation and independent commercialization: the cooperation between HENLIUS and Sandoz has been upgraded to a platform cooperation covering up to 10 biosimilars; the clinical operations, global registration, and commercial cooperation capabilities accumulated from biosimilars can be reused for innovative monoclonal antibodies and ADCs, becoming a capability springboard for the globalization of innovative drugs.
Using the market size of original research drugs as a benchmark, the bank established an M×Q×P×S regional volume-price model based on ① volume and price changes (drug type affects substitution speed and price level), ② competitive landscape (launch order and overseas expansion model determine product share), and ③ regulatory and policy differences across global regions, calculating separately by the characteristics of China, the United States, Europe, and other markets and then summing up year by year.
In terms of innovative pipelines, the company's existing innovative products continue to ramp up, while the research pipeline is rich, with multiple blockbuster products expected to be launched and bring sufficient cash flow. HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) is expected to read out data intensively at WCLC/ESMO 2026, verifying its broad-spectrum drug potential; serplulimab has the world's first 4-year OS rate data for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, ASTRUM-006 was published in the main journal of The Lancet and included in CSCO guidelines, and the U.S. bridging study ASTRIDE completed enrollment.
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