Abstract
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA will report on October 29, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview compiles last quarter’s actuals, the current quarter’s forecast, and recent sell-side commentary to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and EPS alongside the bank’s core geographic drivers.Market Forecast
Consensus tracking indicates adjusted EPS for the current quarter of 0.62 with an estimate year-over-year growth of 16.98%; revenue and EBIT forecasts were not provided in aggregate. Based on the company’s last disclosed regional mix, revenue in the upcoming quarter is expected to remain anchored by Mexico and Spain, with net profitability supported by a mid-30s net profit margin and EPS momentum on a double-digit year-over-year trajectory.Main business highlights remain centered on Mexico, Spain, Turkey, and South America, where lending spreads and fee income have sustained overall margins and earnings resilience. The most promising segment is Mexico, contributing 8.57 billion US dollars last quarter and functioning as the largest earnings engine with solid year-over-year expansion inferred from mix gains and sustained pricing.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA generated total revenue of 21.16 billion US dollars, reported a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.06 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 33.75%, and delivered adjusted EPS of 0.639; gross profit margin was not disclosed by the dataset. Quarter-on-quarter, net profit increased by approximately 2.44% based on the dataset’s growth indicator.The company’s revenue base was diversified across geographies, with Mexico at 8.57 billion US dollars, Spain at 5.15 billion US dollars, Turkey at 3.37 billion US dollars, South America at 3.31 billion US dollars, Other Business at 1.20 billion US dollars, and a Corporate Center offset of 0.43 billion US dollars. Main business strength was concentrated in Mexico’s contribution and mix, which underpinned consolidated earnings and margin stability.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business drivers and earnings sensitivity
The core franchise spans Mexico, Spain, Turkey, and South America, with Mexico as the anchor for earnings. Given the last quarter’s mix, Mexico’s contribution of 8.57 billion US dollars provides the largest buffer to earnings variability, helped by robust net interest income and healthy transaction-driven fee flows. The bank’s consolidated net profit margin printed in the mid-30s last quarter, and sustaining a similar range would support the current-quarter EPS forecast of 0.62, which carries a 16.98% year-over-year growth expectation. The quarter’s sensitivity will hinge on net interest margin trends in Mexico and Spain, loan growth moderation relative to deposit betas, and credit cost normalization, especially where consumer and SME exposures are most active.Most promising business: Mexico franchise
Mexico’s scale and pricing power position it as the most promising engine for this quarter. The segment contributed 8.57 billion US dollars last quarter and remains a structural driver of consolidated profits through favorable spreads, solid transactional banking activity, and cross-sell depth across retail and SME. With EPS forecast to grow double digits year over year, incremental gains from Mexico’s net interest income and fees can bridge potential variability in other regions. Should the cost of risk remain contained and deposit costs stabilize, Mexico’s incremental contribution can enhance group-level earnings durability and offer upside risk to EPS relative to the 0.62 marker.Key factors for stock performance this quarter
Earnings delivery versus the 0.62 EPS target is a primary determinant for near-term stock moves, especially given the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS of 0.639 and a quarter-on-quarter net profit uptick of roughly 2.44%. The market will watch net interest income momentum in core geographies and whether net profit margin remains in a mid-30s band, as that underpins confidence in sustainable capital generation. Credit quality trends and provisioning in Turkey and South America are likely to be watched closely given macro sensitivity, while capital return signals could influence valuation multiples if earnings visibility holds.Analyst Opinions
Across recent commentary windows, the balance of opinions leans constructive, with a majority of analysts framing the outlook as bullish relative to the forecasted 0.62 adjusted EPS and double-digit year-over-year EPS growth. Several institutions emphasize Mexico as an earnings linchpin, supporting sustained profitability and cushioning variability from other regions. A notable set of analysts highlight that even modest stability in net profit margin around the mid-30s, combined with measured credit costs, should allow the bank to meet or modestly surpass EPS expectations this quarter.Prominent houses have reiterated positive stances, citing resilient net interest income in Mexico and steady fee trends in Spain as supportive factors for this reporting window. Their prevailing view is that the revenue mix remains favorable and that earnings execution, while sensitive to credit costs and funding dynamics, is positioned to align with or top the 0.62 EPS forecast. The bullish perspective also points to the last quarter’s incremental net profit growth and the diversity of geographic earnings, which together provide a buffer against idiosyncratic shocks and help sustain confidence in near-term performance.
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