On February 3rd, the precious metals market has experienced intensified volatility recently, with gold and silver prices still struggling at low levels due to the aftershocks of last Friday's market-wide crash. GTC Zehui Capital stated that although there is room for further declines in the short term, from the perspective of the full-year macro cycle, the market still harbors extremely high asymmetric upside risks.
In fact, even before last week's market turbulence, mainstream financial institutions had already been raising their gold price forecasts. GTC Zehui Capital believes that even after the recent extreme sell-off, the judgment that gold could surge to $6,000 per ounce by year-end still holds合理性. Last Friday's market activity was essentially a profound "deleveraging" movement: gold fell 10% in a single day, marking its largest intraday drop since the 2008 financial crisis and its worst single-day performance since the 1980s; silver was even more volatile, plummeting by 30%.
Addressing this phenomenon, GTC Zehui Capital indicated that such extreme volatility was not due to a reversal in fundamentals, but rather a concentrated outbreak driven by market positioning. News regarding the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair acted as the trigger for the sell-off, propelling a strong rebound in the US dollar from multi-year lows. Gold's performance does not solely depend on interest rate movements but is more influenced by the divergence in monetary policy expectations. As both gold and silver were previously in a severely overbought state, any minor disturbance in a low-liquidity environment could trigger a stampede among long positions.
Regarding positioning, when prices hit stop-loss levels, margin call pressures forced systematic funds to rapidly reduce risk. Silver's cliff-like decline is a typical characteristic of leverage unwinding. GTC Zehui Capital believes that profit-taking, Value at Risk (VaR) limits, and the deleveraging effects of CTA strategies, amplified by month-end effects, created a rapid chain reaction, causing price declines to far exceed what fundamentals could explain.
Looking ahead, GTC Zehui Capital's deep observation of the options market reveals an extreme polarization in positioning for gold by December 2026. Although put options at $4,000 are increasing, call option activity with strike prices between $10,000 and $20,000 is also活跃. This asymmetry suggests that once uncertainty dissipates, the market's explosive potential could be惊人.
In contrast, silver's trajectory is more迷离. GTC Zehui Capital stated that although the market still holds expectations for silver to reach $200 by May or July 2026, a significant buildup of put options in the $75 to $95 range has recently emerged, indicating substantial resistance for silver in the near term.
In summary, the current correction does not signify the end of the bull market but rather a "healthy detox." As institutional interference diminishes, the core logic supporting the upward trend for precious metals remains unshaken. GTC Zehui Capital advises investors to remain calm during extreme volatility, closely monitor changes in options market positioning, and seize potential布局 opportunities.
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