UBS: Sands China's Q4 EBITDA Misses Estimates, Maintains "Neutral" Rating

Deep News01-30

UBS released a research report stating that Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reported adjusted EBITDA for its Macau properties in the fourth quarter of 2025 was $608 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 6%. However, after adjusting for the win rate in the VIP segment, the EBITDA stood at $582 million, falling short of the market consensus forecast of $628 million. The bank assigned Sands China (01928) a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HK$22.4.

UBS stated that the profit margin for the quarter was lower than expected, primarily reflecting increased costs and a revenue mix shift towards the lower-margin premium mass segment. Management reaffirmed its target of achieving annual EBITDA of $2.7 billion from its Macau properties, which the bank believes will be supported by improvements in asset utilization.

Management believes that enhancements to marketing plans since the second quarter and the launch of new facilities have set gaming revenue growth on the right track, with a focus on optimizing promotional efficiency slated for 2026.

Management pointed out that per capita spending in the base mass segment has remained stagnant, and the shift towards the premium segment could impact its overall margin structure.

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