Since late October, the price of 7kg piglets has rebounded from its decline. According to Sublime China Information monitoring, as of November 7, the national average price for 7kg piglets has risen to 207.19 yuan per head, marking an increase of 41.52 yuan per head compared to mid-October—a growth of 25.06%. This rebound is driven by both improved demand due to rising hog prices and reduced supply as major farming groups cut back on sales amid losses. Sublime China Information predicts that 7kg piglet prices still have room for modest growth over the next 1-2 months.
**7kg Piglet Prices Rebound Sharply, Up 25.06% in Half a Month** The domestic 7kg piglet market has recently seen a significant turnaround, ending the continuous price decline observed since mid-July. The rebound has exceeded market expectations, fueled by two key factors: rising hog prices boosting restocking demand and farming groups retaining more piglets due to sales losses, thereby tightening supply.
**Hog Price Recovery Boosts Restocking Demand** Since mid-October, hog prices have fluctuated, initially rising before dipping again. Small-scale farmers have taken advantage of lower prices to restock for secondary fattening, reducing the supply of standard hogs. Meanwhile, major producers have met their sales targets ahead of schedule, and the peak pressure from capacity release has passed, leading to stronger pricing sentiment. This has supported a rebound in hog prices, which in turn has improved restocking demand for piglets. Farmers are now less cautious about purchasing piglets, leading to higher transaction volumes and further price support.
**Farming Groups Retain More Piglets Amid Losses, Supporting Prices** Due to sustained declines in piglet prices in Q3, major hog farming groups have faced widespread losses in piglet sales. Sublime China Information notes that some companies lose 60-80 yuan per piglet sold. To mitigate losses, these groups have increasingly held back sales since late October, adjusting strategies by reducing external sales and retaining more piglets for future fattening. This shift has directly reduced market supply, amplifying price gains as demand rises.
**Modest Upside Expected in the Next 1-2 Months** On the demand side, Sublime China Information data shows that planned November hog slaughter volumes fell 4.95% month-on-month. Additionally, restocking demand remains strong ahead of the Spring Festival in February 2026, as current restocking would allow hogs to reach optimal weight by then. This suggests further upside for hog prices, sustaining piglet demand.
On the supply side, reluctance to sell among farming groups due to losses is unlikely to ease soon. Most still plan to retain piglets, meaning tight supply will persist in the near term.
Considering these factors, Sublime China Information expects 7kg piglet prices to maintain a slight upward trend over the next 1-2 months.
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