NEBIUS closed at USD 218.16 with a 0.57% increase.
Recent options activity was dominated by a multi-million dollar double put purchase, signaling strong institutional conviction for downside movement, alongside other notable bearish flows that outweighed a significant bullish call trade.
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Options Indicators
NBIS has an implied volatility of 168.67%, and with an IV percentile of 98.80%, its current volatility is sitting at an extremely elevated level versus its own historical range, indicating that options are priced expensively. The IV/HV ratio of 1.26 further suggests implied volatility is running above realized volatility, meaning the options market is embedding a meaningful premium over recent actual movement. In this setup, outright option purchases face a relatively high premium burden, while structures that define or offset premium outlay may be more efficient. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.44.
Large Trades
A $11.83 million same-direction double PUT purchase stood out as a clear directional volatility bet, built through buying 3,607 contracts of the July 31, 2026 $220.00 put and 3,607 contracts of the July 31, 2026 $200.00 put for a combined net debit of $11.83 million. With NBIS referenced at $218.16, the $220.00 put was in the money while the $200.00 put was out of the money, giving the structure layered downside exposure across nearby and deeper-downside strikes. Strategically, this is a premium-paid bearish position that seeks a sizable downward move while also benefiting from an expansion in downside volatility, showing conviction that the stock could weaken materially into that expiry.
A $11.80 million single-leg call buy added the main bullish expression of the session, with 3,900 contracts of the August 21, 2026 $250.00 call purchased for $11.80 million. That strike sat out of the money versus the $218.16 reference price, so the trade represents an upside directional bet requiring further appreciation in NBIS to gain intrinsic value. The use of an outright long call indicates premium outlay for leveraged upside participation rather than income generation, suggesting the buyer was positioning for a meaningful rally over a longer-dated horizon.
Overall sentiment across all large trades leaned bearish, with total bullish flow of $11.80 million versus total bearish flow of $31.75 million, leaving a net difference of $19.96 million to the bearish side. The directional judgment is therefore clearly bearish. While the notable $250.00 call purchase showed that some traders are still willing to pay for upside exposure, the broader large-trade tape was dominated by bearish activity, including two bear call spreads and the sizable double-put purchase, indicating that institutional-sized positioning was more focused on downside protection, bearish premium structures, and expectations for weakness rather than sustained upside follow-through.
Strategy Reference
Given the elevated implied volatility, a seller of out-of-the-money puts, such as at the $150.00 strike, could collect premium with a low probability of assignment, while a bearish trader preferring defined risk could consider a put spread, such as buying the $220.00 put and selling a lower-strike put, to offset some of the high premium cost.
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