Wall Street banking giant Goldman Sachs has indicated that artificial intelligence is already exerting downward pressure on labor markets across major developed economies, though the impact varies significantly by industry and seniority level. The investment bank's research reveals that since the second half of 2022, sectors with higher exposure to AI automation have generally experienced a slowdown in job vacancy growth, a correlation that is particularly pronounced in Germany, Australia, and the United States.
In a report released on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs identified information and communication services as one of the industries most affected by AI, noting that employment growth in this sector has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022. However, outside the United States, employment levels in this industry remain close to or above their long-term trends. Extending the analysis to other AI-exposed sectors, the bank found that similar employment pressures are emerging in other developed markets, although the overall impact remains relatively moderate.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising has fallen significantly below historical trends across various developed markets. The situation is especially acute in the call center industry. According to the report, US call center employment is 39% below trend levels, Canada has seen a 33% decline, and Germany is running 27% below its historical baseline. The bank suggests this indicates that AI-driven employment pressure is already materializing in industries where automation tools are commercially viable.
The impact appears to be more pronounced for early-career workers. After analyzing employment growth across more than 800 occupations, Goldman Sachs found that the downward pressure from AI is most evident among junior-level positions. While negative effects also exist in occupations deemed to have high AI replacement risk, the magnitude of the impact is comparatively smaller. Looking at the broader labor market, a 10% increase in an occupation's AI exposure only reduces annual employment growth by 0.1 percentage points in France, Canada, and the United States. However, for entry-level workers, the effect ranges from more than 0.6 percentage points in Australia to over 0.2 percentage points in the United States.
Overall, the investment bank concludes that AI-related hiring pressures are clearly visible in global employment data, but the impact is currently confined to a relatively limited set of industries and worker segments. This labor market strain comes against a backdrop of accelerating AI adoption across developed economies. By aggregating data from 11 cross-national AI adoption surveys, Goldman Sachs estimates that AI penetration in major developed markets stands at approximately 15% to 20%. France, the United States, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are leading in AI adoption, while Italy, Japan, and New Zealand rank among developed economies with lower penetration rates. Meanwhile, AI penetration in major emerging markets is estimated to be in the 10% to 15% range.
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