Bitcoin's market is currently experiencing a significant mismatch in its supply-demand structure, with spot buying rapidly exiting while miner viability has not been substantially impacted.
Data from monitoring firm CryptoQuant indicates that market demand and miner fundamentals are moving in opposite directions, a divergence suggesting current price volatility does not fully reflect the underlying accumulation pressure within the network.
The deeper issue is that price movements alone can no longer fully depict market balance, as structural vulnerabilities are quietly accumulating.
Weakness in the spot market stands in stark contrast to the support from derivatives. Analysts note the current structure is fragile, with price stability relying more on derivative activity than on spot accumulation.
The 30-day spot demand indicator briefly recovered to -80,000 BTC in early July before rapidly deteriorating to -170,000 BTC.
Traders have reduced their risk exposure by closing bearish positions, which has temporarily limited the downside, but the lack of new buying support means volatility could rise again once derivative positions rebalance.
More critically, on July 14th, the largest cohort of major holders, or "whales," recorded $297.3 million in realized losses, one of the largest losses this cycle, further intensifying selling pressure in the market.
Data compiled shows a markedly different picture on the miner side. The Puell Multiple, a key metric comparing miner revenue to its 365-day average, reveals miners are facing extremely low economic pressure.
A CryptoQuant contributor noted that the cycle low for this metric is currently just 0.53, the highest bottom value across cycles since 2018. For comparison, it was 0.28 in December 2018, 0.35 in July 2022, and 0.49 in September 2024.
The metric is currently maintained around 0.84, well above historical troughs, indicating miners are not experiencing the severe survival crisis typical of past downturns, and network fundamentals remain robust.
Despite positive miner metrics, uncertainty remains about the price finding a definitive bottom. Historical data shows that a Puell Multiple falling below 0.65 has often preceded price increases, but an immediate rebound is not guaranteed.
The experience from July 2022 demonstrated that miner-related indicators can improve before the price fully recovers. This implies that while miner pressure is minimal, the market still requires a substantive return of spot demand to confirm a true bottom has been established.
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