Key Views from Zijing Tianfeng Futures
Core Outlook: Oscillating. The strong fundamentals for Q3 remain unchanged, and price support continues the assessment from last week. Lithium prices are expected to remain relatively strong with fluctuations. However, given the consensus of a strong near-term but weak long-term outlook, the possibility of a near-term upward breakout for far-month lithium prices may weaken. If the Jianxiawo operation resumes smoothly, ore supply is expected to increase in Q4, gradually putting pressure on lithium salt supply. Uncertainty on the demand side could significantly impact the balance, so attention should be paid to the continuity of battery orders.
Lithium Carbonate Spot Price: Bearish. The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week to 145,500 yuan/ton.
Monthly Spread: Neutral. No new drivers.
Lithium Ore - Port Available Inventory: Bullish. As of July 24, total domestic trader lithium ore inventory and available inventory decreased by 0.66 and 0.9 million tons respectively compared to July 17, standing at 8.99 and 4.3 million tons.
Lithium Ore - Import Price: Bearish. Last week, the CIF prices of spodumene concentrate from Australia and Brazil fell by 85 and 85 USD/ton respectively, to 2,115 and 2,095 USD/ton.
Lithium Ore - Domestic Price: Bearish. Last week, domestic spodumene concentrate (5%-5.5%) prices fell by 625 yuan/ton; domestic lepidolite concentrate (2.0%-2.5%) prices fell by 225 yuan/ton.
Lithium Carbonate - Production: Bullish. Last week, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 680 tons week-on-week to 23,868 tons. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources changed by -995, +200, +150, and -35 tons respectively, reaching 12,509, 2,745, 5,269, and 3,345 tons.
Lithium Carbonate - Cost: Bearish. Last week, the production cost for externally purchased spodumene concentrate fell by 4,868 yuan/ton to 146,917 yuan/ton, and the cost for externally purchased lepidolite fell by 5,192 yuan/ton to 132,827 yuan/ton.
Lithium Carbonate - Inventory (Including Warrants): Bullish. For total inventory, as of July 23, sample total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,726 tons week-on-week to 86,911 tons. Inventory at smelters, downstream, and others was +18, -934, and -1,810 tons respectively, reaching 13,291, 50,708, and 22,912 tons. Broader sample total inventory decreased by 5,341 tons to 114,326 tons. Registered warrants totaled 39,879 tons as of July 24, a decrease of 466 tons from July 17.
Ternary - Production & Inventory: Bearish. As of July 23, weekly ternary material production decreased by 451 tons to 19,474 tons, while weekly inventory decreased by 441 tons to 20,015 tons.
Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production & Inventory: Bullish. As of July 23, weekly LFP production increased by 930 tons to 120,930 tons, while weekly inventory increased by 500 tons to 137,300 tons.
Last Week Summary: During the week, lithium prices broke below 140,000 yuan/ton amidst pessimistic expectations of weakening long-term fundamentals but rebounded from the lows following concentrated maintenance news releases from Qinghai, Sichuan, and Jiangxi provinces. On the fundamentals supply side, weekly lithium carbonate production decreased slightly, with a significant drop in spodumene-based production, still impacted by ore tightness. Future supply increases will come from lithium concentrate port arrivals, but also watch for supply pressure from the Jianxiawo restart. On the demand side, downstream cathode material and battery production schedules for July continued positive growth month-on-month. According to consultancies, August battery production plans show a 7% growth rate, continuing the trend of a non-sluggish-demand season, providing some support for lithium prices. Overall, the strong Q3 fundamentals remain unchanged, and price support continues the assessment from last week. Lithium prices are expected to remain relatively strong with fluctuations. However, given the consensus of a strong near-term but weak long-term outlook, the possibility of a near-term upward breakout for far-month lithium prices may weaken. If the Jianxiawo operation resumes smoothly, ore supply is expected to increase in Q4, gradually putting pressure on lithium salt supply. Uncertainty on the demand side could significantly impact the balance, so attention should be paid to the continuity of battery orders.
Lithium Carbonate Price: Futures Price Oscillates
Main Contract Price Declined with Fluctuations. Last week, the main lithium carbonate futures contract price fell. The main LC2609 contract opened at 151,500 yuan/ton and closed at 144,280 yuan/ton, with a high of 154,800 yuan/ton and a low of 136,800 yuan/ton during the period, a weekly decline of 3.90%.
Spot Quotes Fell Week-on-Week - Battery/Industrial Grade Spread Unchanged. Spot prices fell week-on-week, with the battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 8,500 yuan/ton to 145,500 yuan/ton. Regarding spreads, the battery/industrial grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 0 to 4,000 yuan/ton, while the battery-grade lithium hydroxide/carbonate spread widened by 1,000 to -12,000 yuan/ton.
Lithium Ore: Spot Prices Fluctuate and Decline Recently
Domestic and Imported Lithium Ore Prices Fell Week-on-Week. Last week, domestic lithium ore spot and imported lithium ore prices fell week-on-week. Specifically, average prices for domestic spodumene concentrate grades 3%-4%, 4%-5%, and 5%-5.5% fell by 355, 515, and 625 yuan/ton respectively, reaching 8,075, 10,975, and 13,575 yuan/ton. Average prices for domestic lepidolite concentrate grades 1.5%-2.0% and 2.0%-2.5% fell by 170 and 225 yuan/ton respectively, reaching 2,950 and 4,185 yuan/ton. CIF prices for imported spodumene ore grades 1.2%-1.5%, 2%-2.5%, and 3%-4% fell by 5, 12.5, and 20 USD/ton respectively. CIF prices for Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrate fell by 85 and 85 USD/ton respectively, to 2,115 and 2,095 USD/ton.
Total Lithium Ore Port Inventory Decreased Week-on-Week. Last week, domestic trader lithium ore inventory decreased week-on-week, and trader available lithium ore inventory also decreased. As of July 24, total domestic trader lithium ore inventory and available inventory decreased by 0.66 and 0.9 million tons respectively compared to July 17, standing at 8.99 and 4.3 million tons. According to Ganglian, as of June 2026, total externally purchased lithium ore inventory for lithium salt plants reached 458,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13,000 tons. Of this, factory inventory and in-transit inventory were 363,000 tons and 95,000 tons, changing by -15,000 and +28,000 tons month-on-month. According to SMM, as of June 2026, lithium salt plant lithium ore inventory totaled 132,984 tons (LCE equivalent), a decrease of 4,193 tons month-on-month, while mine-site lithium ore inventory totaled 34,030 tons (LCE equivalent), an increase of 3,230 tons month-on-month.
Lithium Carbonate: Supply Decreases Week-on-Weak
Weekly Production Decreased, July Production Expected to be Flat. Weekly production: Last week, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 680 tons week-on-week to 23,868 tons. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources changed by -995, +200, +150, and -35 tons respectively, reaching 12,509, 2,745, 5,269, and 3,345 tons (SMM). By region, last week, production in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan changed by +105, -723, and +105 tons week-on-week, reaching 4,390, 6,033, and 5,900 tons. The weekly operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.4% (Baiyin Feiyuan). Monthly production: July 2026 production is expected to increase by 90 tons month-on-month to 115,410 tons, a 0.1% increase. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources is expected to be -4,500, +2,700, +1,390, and +500 tons, reaching 62,250, 16,530, 21,940, and 14,690 tons (SMM). June production reached 115,320 tons, a 2% month-on-month increase, meeting expectations.
Externally Purchased Lithium Ore Production Costs Fell. The production cost for externally purchased spodumene concentrate (Li2O: 6%) fell by 4,868 yuan/ton to 146,917 yuan/ton, with profit falling by 1,567 yuan/ton to -3,466 yuan/ton. The production cost for externally purchased lepidolite concentrate (Li2O: 2.5%) fell by 5,192 yuan/ton to 132,827 yuan/ton, with profit falling by 1,177 yuan/ton to 6,941 yuan/ton. The production cost for externally purchased LFP battery black mass (Li: 2.0%-2.8%) fell by 11,949.9 yuan/ton to 147,160.3 yuan/ton, with profit increasing by 5,449.9 yuan/ton to -5,660.3 yuan/ton. The production cost for externally purchased LFP electrode scrap black mass (Li: 3.2%-4.2%) fell by 9,454.34 yuan/ton to 151,055.1 yuan/ton, with profit increasing by 2,954.34 yuan/ton to -9,555.1 yuan/ton. The production cost for externally purchased ternary battery black mass (Li: 3.0%-3.5%) fell by 4,051.9 yuan/ton to 146,970.9 yuan/ton, with profit decreasing by 713.4 yuan/ton to -4,426 yuan/ton. The production cost for externally purchased ternary electrode scrap black mass (Li: 5.5%-6.5%) fell by 7,557.36 yuan/ton to 143,840.8 yuan/ton, with profit increasing by 1,057.36 yuan/ton to -2,340.8 yuan/ton.
Total Inventory Decreased Week-on-Week, Warrant Volume Decreased. For total inventory, as of July 23, sample total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,726 tons week-on-week to 86,911 tons. Inventory at smelters, downstream, and others was +18, -934, and -1,810 tons respectively, reaching 13,291, 50,708, and 22,912 tons. Broader sample total inventory decreased by 5,341 tons to 114,326 tons. Registered warrants totaled 39,879 tons as of July 24, a decrease of 466 tons from July 17.
Lithium Carbonate Total Inventory Days Decreased. As of July 23, total lithium carbonate inventory days across the upstream and downstream supply chain was 21.5 days, a decrease of 0.5 days week-on-week. Upstream (lithium salt plant) inventory days were 3 days, an increase of 0.1 days. Downstream (cathode material) inventory days were 13.1 days, a decrease of 0.2 days. Other channels' inventory days were 5.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days.
Cathode Materials & Electrolyte: July Production Schedules Continue to Grow
Ternary Materials: July Production Schedule +3%. Last week, ternary material prices mostly fell, ranging from -4,800 yuan/ton to -3,800 yuan/ton. As of July 23, weekly ternary material production decreased by 451 tons to 19,474 tons, while weekly inventory decreased by 441 tons to 20,015 tons. Ternary material production for July is estimated at 89,690 tons, an increase of 2,630 tons month-on-month (+3%). June production was 87,060 tons, a decrease of 1,890 tons month-on-month (-2.12%), lower than expectations. From July 17 to July 23, the production profit for 523-type ternary material changed by +435 to -1,430 yuan/ton, and for 811-type changed by -935 to 512.5 yuan/ton.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP): July Production Schedule +6.8%. Last week, prices for power-grade and low-end energy storage-grade LFP fell by 1,480 and 11,800 yuan/ton respectively. As of July 23, weekly LFP production increased by 930 tons to 120,930 tons, while weekly inventory increased by 500 tons to 137,300 tons. LFP production for July is estimated at 536,850 tons, an increase of 34,400 tons month-on-month (+6.8%). June production was 502,450 tons, an increase of 13,350 tons month-on-month (+3%), generally meeting expectations.
LCO & LMO Production Schedules for July Relatively Flat. LCO production for July is estimated at 7,740 tons, a 3.3% month-on-month increase. June production was 7,490 tons, a decrease of 6.84% month-on-month. LMO production for July is estimated at 10,770 tons, a decrease of 60 tons month-on-month (-1%). June production was 10,830 tons, a decrease of 200 tons month-on-month (-2%), meeting expectations.
Electrolyte: Prices Up Week-on-Week, 6F Monthly Production Schedule Expected to Increase. Last week, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) increased by 7,000 yuan/ton to 103,500 yuan/ton, a 7.3% week-on-week increase. LiPF6 production for July is estimated at 33,700 tons, a 3% month-on-month increase. Electrolyte production for July is estimated at 292,080 tons, a 5% month-on-month increase (SMM). As of June 2026, upstream and downstream inventory days for LiPF6 were 7.3 and 11 days, respectively, changing by -0.1 and +0.4 days month-on-month.
Batteries: July Battery Production Schedule +7%
Production: July Battery Production Schedule +7%. Total battery production for July 2026 is estimated at 268.74 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 17.15 GWh (+7%). By type, ternary battery and LFP battery production are estimated at 44.07 GWh and 214.95 GWh, respectively, increases of 2.8 and 14.23 GWh month-on-month, both up 7% month-on-month. By application, energy storage batteries, power ternary batteries, and power LFP batteries production are estimated at 85.25, 40.85, and 128.36 GWh, respectively, increases of 3.06, 2.7, and 11.1 GWh month-on-month, corresponding to growth rates of 4%, 7%, and 9%. For weekly power cell production, as of July 24, total domestic weekly power cell production reached 39.8 GWh, a week-on-week increase of 1.8 GWh. LFP cell and ternary cell weekly production reached 30.4 and 9.4 GWh, respectively, increases of 1.2 and 0.6 GWh week-on-week.
Inventory: Domestic Cell Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Stabilized with a Slight Upward Adjustment in June. As of May 2026, by type, domestic LFP battery and ternary battery inventories were 142 and 51.7 GWh, respectively, with month-on-month changes of +1% and 0%. By application, as of May 2026, domestic energy storage cell, power cell (LFP), and power cell (ternary) inventories were 28.7, 113.28, and 51.65 GWh, respectively, with month-on-month changes of +3%, +2%, and 0%. Regarding the inventory-to-sales ratio, as of June 2026, the ratios for energy storage cells, power cells (LFP), and power cells (ternary) were 0.35, 1.24, and 1.6 months, respectively, changing by -0.01, +0.15, and +0.08 months month-on-month.
Comments