Abstract
Marriott International will report its fourth-quarter results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles recent financials and forecasts to frame expectations for revenue, earnings per share, margins, and segment momentum through October 21, 2025 to February 03, 2026.
Market Forecast
Consensus and company-indicated projections point to fourth-quarter revenue of USD 6.67 billion, an adjusted EPS of USD 2.61, and EBIT of USD 1.18 billion, with forecast year-over-year growth of 4.55% in revenue and 9.47% in EPS; margin cadence implies stable gross profit margin near last quarter’s level and a net profit margin broadly in line with prior trends. Marriott’s core reimbursement stream is expected to remain solid as fee-based revenues expand, while incentive and base management fees should benefit from resilient global RevPAR and continued unit growth. The most promising segment appears to be franchise fees at USD 0.88 billion with mid-single-digit year-over-year growth, supported by pipeline conversions and strong owner demand for Marriott’s flags.
Last Quarter Review
Marriott International’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 6.49 billion, a gross profit margin of 81.15%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.73 billion, a net profit margin of 42.11%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.47, with year-over-year growth of 9.29% in EPS. A key highlight was EBIT of USD 1.12 billion, exceeding the period’s compiled estimate by USD 14.52 million and indicating operating performance ahead of expectations despite mixed travel patterns. Main business highlights include reimbursement revenue of USD 4.76 billion and franchise fees of USD 0.88 billion, while owned, leased and other brought in USD 0.42 billion; incentive management fees reached USD 0.15 billion, and base management fees delivered USD 0.31 billion.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Fee and Reimbursement Engine
Marriott’s main business is anchored by reimbursement revenue and fee-based income streams derived from franchised and managed properties. For the current quarter, reimbursement is likely to track systemwide cost flows tied to marketing and loyalty programs, which scale with room revenue and tend to provide stable top-line contribution without margin volatility at the corporate level. Franchise and base management fees are positioned to grow in step with global RevPAR and net unit additions, with revenue forecast to rise to USD 6.67 billion and EPS to USD 2.61, indicating a healthy fee capture into year-end. Operating discipline, loyalty contribution, and mix toward higher-rate tiers can support a gross profit margin consistent with the last quarter’s 81.15%, while net margin performance should remain aligned with prior-quarter dynamics given similar cost structure and interest expense trends.
Franchise Fees as the Most Promising Growth Contributor
Franchise fees stand out as a growth lever because they scale efficiently with property-level revenue while requiring limited capital from Marriott. The previous quarter’s USD 0.88 billion in franchise fees underscores the breadth of the brand portfolio and the durability of owner demand across markets. For the current quarter, mid-single-digit year-over-year growth in fee income is supported by continued pipeline activations, conversions, and cross-brand loyalty activity enhancing rate and occupancy. If global travel demand remains stable across leisure and group segments, fee growth should outpace reimbursement, improving the revenue mix and supporting incremental margin resilience at the corporate level.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Stock performance in this reporting cycle is likely to hinge on the interplay among EPS delivery, fee revenue momentum, and commentary on RevPAR and unit growth. A print near USD 2.61 in EPS with revenue at USD 6.67 billion would validate forecasts and keep focus on operating leverage in the fee-based model, while any variance in gross profit margin versus the prior quarter’s 81.15% could recalibrate expectations for cost throughput and owned-leased exposure. Management’s color on incentive management fees sensitivity to property-level profit recovery will be watched closely, as this line item amplifies upside when asset profitability expands. Forward guidance on signings and conversions may sway sentiment on growth durability into the next fiscal year, especially as capital-light expansion supports consistency in margin and cash generation.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary over the period from October 21, 2025 to February 03, 2026 leans positive, with a majority expressing constructive views on Marriott’s fee-driven earnings model and RevPAR trajectory. Analysts highlighting the company’s ability to surpass EBIT expectations in the previous quarter noted that consistent pipeline execution and brand breadth are supporting fee growth and stabilizing margins. The bullish camp expects a steady EPS progression toward the USD 2.61 mark with revenue rising 4.55% year over year to USD 6.67 billion, anchored by manageable cost dynamics and robust loyalty economics. These views emphasize the resilience of franchise and management fees, seeing limited downside from reimbursement variability and arguing that sustained owner demand and new property openings can carry momentum into upcoming quarters.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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