Market Highlights and Key Data
Macro Perspective During the week of 2026-01-16, both gold and silver prices experienced a pullback. Regarding the Federal Reserve, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than be transferred to the Fed. Following these remarks, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh quickly became the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair. On interest rates, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that rates are in a range consistent with neutral levels; the current policy stance is "well-positioned"; the economy is expected to grow 2% in the near term, with unemployment remaining stable this year; the Fed is fully prepared to decide whether further adjustments to interest rates are needed. Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, and officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the employment situation does not improve. Unless there is clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, the Fed should be ready to adjust policy towards a more neutral level. Bowman described inflationary pressures as easing and stated the Fed should continue monitoring risks to its "maximum employment" mandate, taking preemptive measures to stabilize and support the labor market. Geopolitically, U.S. Presidential Envoy Witkoff revealed that the U.S. has conveyed a direct message to Iran. Witkoff noted Iran's severe economic situation, suggesting that if Iran wishes to reintegrate into the international community, issues can be resolved diplomatically, with uranium enrichment, missiles, sensitive materials, and "regional proxy militias" being four key topics. Witkoff also warned that if diplomacy fails, the "alternative will be very bad."
Fundamental Perspective During the week of 2026-01-16, gold warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 100,053 kilograms, a change of 2,400 kilograms from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kilograms to 626,843 kilograms. Regarding COMEX inventories, COMEX gold inventories changed by -176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces this week, while COMEX silver inventories changed by -10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces.
In terms of precious metal ETFs, for the week of January 16 (latest available), the gold SPDR ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tonnes, and the silver SLV ETF holdings were 16,073 tonnes. As of January 13, 2025, CFTC positioning data showed gold speculative net long positions at 136,548 contracts. Silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts.
During the week of 2026-01-16, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57% compared to the previous week. The electronic components sector index, related to precious metals, rose 1.82%, while the photovoltaic sector increased by 2.93%.
Regarding the photovoltaic price index, the latest data as of January 12, 2026, reported a figure of 14.03, down 0.07 from the previous period. The Photovoltaic Manager Index registered 133.04, down 1.33 month-on-month.
Strategy Gold: Neutral Precious metals have recently undergone a significant correction. The macro direction of the Fed's easing cycle remains unchanged. However, as the market previously largely expected Hassett to become the new Fed Chair, Trump's statement expressing a preference for Hassett to remain in his current role rather than move to the Fed may significantly increase market uncertainty regarding the future path of Fed rate cuts, exerting considerable downward pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, the medium to long-term logic for gold has not reversed; gold, as an alternative to USD-denominated assets, still maintains strong price support.
Silver: Neutral Silver prices have seen a notable pullback. The macro backdrop is similar to that of gold. Additionally, due to silver's inherently higher volatility, while buying on dips for hedging purposes remains viable, greater attention must be paid to position control and strict adherence to stop-loss measures.
Arbitrage: Sell Gold-Silver Ratio on Rallies Options: Pause
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