According to information obtained by Smart Finance APP from two delegates, OPEC+ is expected to pause any further production increases after completing the final round of quota adjustments in September. The group is currently closely monitoring the rapidly evolving impact of the situation in Iran on supply to determine its next steps.
The delegates indicated that the alliance plans to formally approve an agreement at an online meeting scheduled for August 2, which will raise daily quotas by 188,000 barrels in September. The two sources requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. Following this increase, the current phase of output hikes will conclude, with no further supply adjustments planned for the remainder of the year. However, one delegate noted that while this is the current plan, it remains subject to change based on evolving circumstances.
For several months, OPEC has been steadily raising the crude production quotas of its member countries, establishing a roadmap for increases that extends through September, which was set in May. In practice, however, due to the impact of combat operations, key Middle Eastern members of the group have been compelled to significantly cut production and exports, rendering this round of output increases more symbolic in nature.
Oil prices have experienced sharp volatility amid intermittent conflicts. Last week, Brent crude futures briefly surged above $100 per barrel, but fell back below $90 after both the US and Iran paused hostilities. During the fighting, Iran continued to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, causing uncertain production losses. This has not only complicated OPEC+'s supply decisions but also further intensified oil price fluctuations.
In response to the above information, Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry and OPEC itself have not immediately responded to requests for comment.
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